The best part of being a journalist, especially one covering geopolitics, is there is almost never a dull moment. And, even if you ignore some news for 1-2 days, you never realise when it becomes the monster in the room. Something similar is what happened in India’s Himalayan neighbourhood of Nepal.

As if the political upheavals in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh were not enough, now we have a crisis burning right on our head in Nepal, where the country’s outraged ‘Gen-Z’ uprooted the sitting government, burned down the parliament, supreme court and government media houses and country’s mantle has now been handed to an interim government.

Brief History of Nepal

Nepal was a monarchy for over 250 years. King Prithvi Narayan Shah unified a number of small regions into one empire, Nepal in 18th century.  The dynasty dominated the landscape for quite long till military commander Jung Bahadur Rana carried out a coup establishing the control of his dynasty on the empire. Now, as the freedom movement brewed in India, similar sentiments were also growing in Nepal calling for democracy. In 1950, after massive protests and uprising, the Rana dynasty collapsed and power came back to the Shah regime. The new ppwerholders promised bringing democracy, but nothing happened.

In major twist in 1990, pro-democracy protestors surrounded the king’s palace pressing for their demands. Thousands were killed in the crackdown from the King. The situation led to Maoist insurgency demanding democracy, which started in 1996 and after 10 years of violent and bloody civil war, led to a resolution in 2006. The monarchy was abolished, electoral democracy was established, and Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ became country’s first PM.

But, the challenges with the Nepali system persisted. The political parties, mainly the Communists and the Nepali Congress had massive disagreements over the system, new constitution, representation of different communities, and many more things. Not just that, this was compounded with massive political instability too. In 17 years since the first election in 2008, as many as 14 new governments were formed. With average government lasting less than 1.5 years, power rotated between KP Sharma Oli, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Sher Bahadur Deuba, and each of the three playing one political game after the other to mark a new political comeback.

Slowly, frustration started creeping in over this instability, which was further compounded by massive corruption. The Maoists and other so-called revolutionaries turned out to be as corrupt as others. From helping 2015 earthquake victims, supporting those affected from insurgency violence or even while running UN-based schemes, the Nepali leaders (mainly the Big 3) were accused of corruption on every front.

Striking visuals from Nepal protest (Photo: Mathrubhumi)

Sequence of Events

I know, India’s Godi Media tried to portray the whole Nepal protests as a protest against social media. This perception, however, is far from truth. Yes, the tipping point of the protest was the ban on social media apps, but what drove this massive outrage was decades of corrupt governance, high unemployment and inequality in the Nepali society. A particular highlight was the alarming disparity in the lifestyles of the children of the Nepali politicians and those of commoners. While, the former were enjoying lavish lifestyles abroad, the latter group was struggling for jobs and opportunities. Most youth had to migrate out of the country to work as labours and do other minneal jobs. On the other hand, frequent social media posts by the politician’s children bragging off their lavish lives was further infuriating the Nepali youth. The pot was boiling already.

Amid all this, the Nepali government was in a tussle with the major social media platforms, asking them to register locally, which raised concerns over curbs on free speech. Now, there are many aspects of this debate, if you can recall, the Indian government was also in a similar tussle with Twitter (now X) a few years back. But, here NO major social platform complied with the government’s order (except TikTok), as a result of which, the Nepal government imposed a ban on all major platforms; be it Facebook, WhatsApp, X, Instagram, etc. On expected lines, this irked the already frustrated youth of the country and they decided to take on the streets against the government on September 7.

One of the strongest stills from the protest (Photo: AP)

The government led by KP Sharma Oli, tried to play the hard ball, ordering a crackdown on the protests. The Nepali forces initially tried to curb the situation using water canons and tear gas, but after orders from above, opened actual fires. More than 50 protestors were killed and over 400 sustained injuries. But, on contrary of what Mr Oli thought, this further infuriated the Nepali people, and the protest instead of dying down, intensified further. Now, under pressure, the Oli government revoked the ban on social media apps. Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak resigned followed by a couple of other ministers. But, the protestors were not going to rest with anything less than a complete overhaul of the ‘rotten’ system.

The protestors started storming into the government buildings and targeting ministers and their families. The country’s supreme court, parliament, building of Kantipur media house were set ablaze. Some horrific visuals flooded social media as leaders including sitting ministers were beaten, dragged on road and former PM Jhalar Nath Khanal and his wife were even set on fire. The situation became so dire that even the forces refused to open fire on the protestors. When Oli insisted on even brutal crackdown to clamp the protest, the forces instead asked him to step down first. Looking at this state of anarchy, lawlessness and the condition of his ministers at the hand of the protestors, Oli resigned and flew away from the country (still not confirmed where) in a private chopper.

Anti-corruption crusader Sushila Karki took over as Nepal’s interim PM (Photo: Reuters)

Interim Government Takes Charge

After Oli resigned and fled, the armed forces took control of the situation and started dialogue with the ‘Gen Z’ protestors. There were a lot of names running on social media regarding who will take over the country’s helm at this point. The protestors put forward the name of former chief justice (Nepal’s first women CJ) and anti-corruption crusader, Sushila Karki. However, some more names also started floating citing Karki is in her 70s and shouldn’t lead the government as the whole ‘Gen Z’ movement was against old and corrupt leaders.

Subsequently, all factions of the ‘Gen Z’ protestors came for the vote. Despite how interesting it may sound, the voting for the interim-PM was held on gaming and social media app ‘Discord’. But, Karki succesfully garnered over 50% of the votes on the platform. Many also wanted Kathmandu Mayor and rapper-singer, Balen Shah – whose political rise has been meteoric and promising – to take over as PM, but he too supported Karki. Finally, Mrs Karki took charge as the interim PM and Nepal’s first female head. Now, discussions have started on revamping the Constitution and the political system in the country to start afresh. The next elections will reportedly be held on March 5 next year.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Sher Bahadur Deuba and KP Sharma Oli have dominated Nepali political landscape (Photo: The Rising Nepal)

Nepal’s Future

So yes, the interim government has taken charge in Nepal, but the story is far from over. How Kathmandu progresses ahead will depend on what changes it makes to its political system and when and what type of national election it decides to hold. Because history has it, the interim setup doesn’t work well for long.

A good example of this is visible just on our eastern side, Bangladesh, where the interim setup under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus (non-experience in politics) has struggled to bring stability as of now with economic woes and attacks on minorities still making headlines, and uncertainty looming over proper elections. Similarly, Karki too doesn’t hold any political or administrative experience.

Looking at how the protests were “hijacked” by violent elements, the road won’t be that easy for the interim government. One should also keep in mind that the set of leaders Nepali people ousted were also born out of a revolution, who wanted to ‘change’ the system, but everyone knows what changed. So, how the situation unfolds towards proper elections and administration will decide the fate of this Himalayan nation.

Visuals from horrific 2015 Nepal earthquake (Photo: VOA)

India’s Concern and Way Forward

There is not an iota of doubt, that this situation is not a comfortable one for India, which is already pressed on tons of issues on diplomatic front. Having an unstable neighbourhood is the worst scenario one can hope for. As former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee said, “You can choose your friends, but not your neighbour”. The Nepal episode has followed several upheavals in the subcontinent; the uprising which toppled the Rajapaksa government in Sri Lanka (where some stability has come now), a non-friendly government coming in Maldives (though ties have reset quite well now), the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan (India has normalised relations with the menacing outfit), the massive uprising in Bangladesh (from which India has still not been able to recover) and the less I talk about the hostile neighbours, Pakistan and China, the better.

For India to go ahead smoothly on its ties with Nepal, it needs to take a calibrated approach. Mrs Karki, has studied in India (BHU), and is expected to support warm ties with New Delhi. Mr Modi also held talks with her and both have affirmed stronger ties between New Delhi and Kathmandu, But, India also needs to make sure that it is always projected as a friendly and non-interfering neighbour, keeping in mind Beijing is sitting right at the corner to make the most of any small mistake and bring Kathmandu in its fold completely.

There are a few aspects I would like to highlight here. In 2015, when the Madhesi community opposed their alleged underrepresentation in the new Nepali constitution, India, aiming to support Madhesis (who have significant presence in Bihar and UP), urged Nepal to look into the Madhesi demands. The tensions between New Delhi and Kathmandu led to a six-month long border blockade, stifling the Himalayan nation of essential imports. The episode was seen as a clear case of intervention and soured ties between both countries.

Prior to this, India’s support to pro-democratic forces and abolishment of monarchy was seen as meddling. Controversies also erupted from Kathmandu’s side when this same KP Oli stirred border tensions with India over Lipu Lekh boundary.

Additionally, the branches of RSS and Hindu outfits in Nepal have been running a parallel movement for returning Nepal to a ‘Hindu Rashtra’. Now, it may have notable traction among a particular section, but this is actually a case of brazen interference in a foreign and sovereign nation’s internal dynamics by the ideological parent of India’s ruling party. It might not look like a big issue to many now, but it’s a ticking time bomb before some forces are able to portray it as ‘anti-Nepal’ and create another embarassment for New Delhi. In short, India needs to get its act together in the region or else it might lose out each and every neighbour to China, one by one.