24 hours…that’s what Donald Trump had said it would take him to end the Russia-Ukraine war after becoming president. But, here it’s been nearly a year to Mr Trump’s presidency and the conflict continues to hang on. Though, now there are signs and developments that this deadly conflict hanging for over three years, might come to an end but there will be a huge human-economic costs and historical ramifications for the region. In this Blog, I will reflect upon the major developments that took place on and off the battlefield, and where any possible ceasefire will leave Ukraine, Russia and the future of Europe.
Russia-Ukraine war: 500 days to a conflict in stalemate – Arunesh Blog
Ukraine’s ‘surprise’ in Kursk and North Korea’s Entry
For quite a few months the conflict remained in a stalemate, with no side gaining much ground. This changed in the start of 2024 as Russia intensified its efforts in Donbas region. In August 2024, Ukraine launched a surprise attack in Russia’s Kursk region. This was the first time since the start of the conflict when Ukraine targeted a region, well part of Russia. The reasoning was understandable as Ukraine wanted to gain some leverage in terms of land, if it has to sit on the negotiating table. At the peak of its offensive, Kyiv controlled 1400 sq km of Kursk.
The gains, however, were not long-lived as Moscow counterattacked with its reinforcements capturing most of the Kursk region it had lost. By March 2025, Russia had gained almost the whole of the city, which is totally in Russian control as of now. Many experts also label the whole Kursk episode a blunder from Ukraine’s point of view, considering Kyiv was already having a strain on resources and after that putting up so much effort on a Russian city, instead of strengthening the offensive on its areas captured by Russia.
A big highlight of this episode was North Korean troops being part of the Russian soldiers. This was the first instance where a third country directly became a part in the war. It was also a blatant violation from Russia, which otherwise never shies away from giving nuclear threats if there is any deeper support for Ukraine. A few months prior, Putin visited North Korea where Putin and Kim Jong-Un reaffirmed greater support for the respective countries.
Visual from Ukraine amid continuous shelling from Russia (Photo: Economist)
Ukraine’s Defence Under Strain
When Moscow launched its invasion in February 2024, many anticipated Kyiv would not be able to sustain even a week. But, the remarkable resistance showed by Ukraine surprised not just Putin but also set a big example of modern warfare for the world. However, it was also apparent that slowly the fatigue will creep in and despite how mightily it fights, Ukraine will start feeling the strain of the battlefield.
In February 2024, Russia captured the key city of Avdiivka in Donetsk. Within the city, Pokrovsk was a key logistics hub, which too fell into Russian hands and majority of its part is controlled by Moscow. The surrounding villages also getting captured further encircled the city and logistics, building deeper pressure on Kyiv. Pressure also built in Zaporizhzhia, another crucial province under strain but majorly under Ukrainian control. So far, despite the best of its efforts, Ukraine hasn’t been able to gain any major ground. The battlefield situation is no longer a stalemate but has only become tougher for Kyiv.
If we look at the broader picture, Russia controls around 20% of Ukraine’s land (including Crimea). But, out of this around 14% comprises of Crimea, which Moscow invaded back in 2014. So, despite carrying out a full-scale offensive, putting all its might, even involving mercenary groups and foreign troops, all Putin’s army has gained is little more than 5%. Now, irrespective of which side you’re on, you have to acknowledge that Ukraine under Zelenskyy’s leadership has done a tremendous job in resisting a mammoth invasion.
Zelenskyy, under massive pressure made former army chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi to resign amid war (Photo: NBC)
Domestic Pressure on Zelenskyy
While the temperature on the battlefield has remained hot, situation hasn’t been any calmer for Zelenskyy at home. Firstly, his government is overstaying the mandate as ever since the war broke out, Zelenskyy imposed a martial law putting several restrictions and postponing elections indefinitely. This is quite an obvious thing considering how displaced everyone has been in the whole country, in addition to the huge number of men who are fighting in uniform. However, what is interesting to note is while all this Russia has held elections, even in Ukrainian territories occupied by it.
A major episode that rocked Zelenskyy administration was the wartime corruption scandal, allegedly involving $100 million in kickbacks linked to Energoatom, the state nuclear energy operator. The big name implicated in the case was Tymur Mindich, a close friend and former business partner of Zelenskyy. Mindich fled the country before any action. Though, Zelenskyy sanctioned him and also forced two of his key ministers to resign, the damage was done.
In July 2025, Zelenskyy signed a controversial law meant to curb the freedom of country’s anti-corruption bodies. This triggered mass protests, first since the war started. Facing pressure at home and backlash from the European Union, the Ukrainian President back tracked. The damage to his reformist image, however, was done already.
Additionally, there have been questions on Zelenskyy’s popularity as well. His trust rating has fallen from over 70% from the start of the war to 58% in August 2025. Though, it’s fairly decent, Zelenskyy is feeling the heat.
A big sign was seen in January 2024, when General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the army chief was made to resign in the middle of the war. Zaluzhnyi had stated in an interview that the conflict has reached a ‘staelmate’ which angered Zelenskyy who said it will affect the morale of forces and public. Zaluzhnyi was replaced by Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, credited of leading the Kharkiv counteroffensive later that year. But, there is one more theory to it. Zaluzhnyi enjoyed a very high popularity (even more than Zelenskyy according to some reports) and it is said that the Ukrainian President was feeling that pressure and decided to replace him.
Zelenskyy was heckled publicly in the White House in most embarrassing manner (Photo: Reuters)
The White House ‘Horror’
A month after Trump took over the presidency, Zelenskyy went to the White House. But, the reception he received there, he couldn’t have even expected in his dream. Zelenskyy was literally heckled in front of the media by Trump and his deputy, JD Vance at the Oval Office, and was pressed for the need to stop fighting. “You will not survive for a week without US support,” Trump said, adding “you’re gambling with World War III”. If this much humiliation wasn’t enough, Vance also jumped in asking “Have you ever said ‘thanks’ (to US)”?
Honestly, it was the most uncomfortable video I had seen in a long time. More surprising was such treatment being given to a world leader in front of the press. What I really liked though was Zelenskyy refused to be cowered down even in that situation and was arguing back with his stand. The press didn’t make the situation any better as a reporter asked him why he hasn’t worn a suit! A longer meeting followed by a presser was scheduled but how ugly things turned out, Zelenskyy was asked to leave. Not many anticipated then that he would return to the same White House a few months later with changed attire and changed fortune.
Putin and Trump held a historic meeting in Alaska (Photo: BBC)
The Alaska Summit
After months of speculations, Trump announced he will be holding a direct meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. It was the first meeting between the two heads of states of US and Russia since Ukraine war started, and the venue and date chosen for it, were both symbolic. August 15th (the day Axis powers surrendered in WWII) and Alaska, the historic territory US purchased from Russia over 150 years back.
Eventually, the meeting panned on expected lines, however, no concrete agreement came out of it. Reportedly, Putin tried to persuade Trump about his long-standing belief that Russia and Ukraine are “one nation” citing some medieval texts. Trump, however, had acted smart before the meeting and didn’t build any high expectations from the summit. He had just said he would try to swap some territories for Ukraine, while maintaining the meeting “might not go well”. Eventually, the status quo remained, with expectations of a ceasefire but not in the immediate future.
The people of Ukraine have shown phenomenal valor and spirit against Russia’s invasion (Photo: Guardian)
The Biden-Trump Saga
There is an interesting phenomenon worth noticing, about Ukraine’s support from the United States and Europe. Since the war started in 2022, US was the biggest donor for Ukraine with over 43 billion USD, while the whole of Europe contributed over 31 billion USD. Similar numbers remained the next two years, but once Mr Trump took over, the US aid for Ukraine in 2025 stands at a meagre under 10 billion USD, while Europe’s numbers stand at 31 billion USD. So, it clearly shows how Ukraine’s war effort today, is almost completely dependent on Europe.
It perfectly sums up the difference in the approaches of the two US administrations. A big moment came when Biden, in the transition period of presidency (November-January) allowed Ukraine to use the long-range weapons to hit deep inside Russia. It was a longstanding demand from Kyiv to effectively counter the Russian offensive.
After the White House clash, the US stopped all aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. However, days later as Ukraine agreed for a 30-day ceasefire and subsequent negotiations, both were resumed. No ceasefire came into effect, though, because Russia never agreed.
Where will things go?
So, that’s where things stand currently. Ukraine despite showing a lot of prowess, is struggling on the battlefield as Russia is slowly making gains. Putin, being mindful of that is trying to prolong this war as long as possible, so as to capture some more territories.
Any ceasefire agreement which is reached will make Ukraine lose some of the territories. The biggest concern for Kyiv is the Donbas region (Donetsk + Luhansk), as losing this area would cut off the country from any sea route, making it forever dependent on Russia and others for navigation and trade. Also, there are regions of Donbas region, which Russia hasn’t yet captured, but wants full control of, which Ukraine strongly objects.
Another concerning clause form Russian side is a cap on Ukraine’s army and guarantee of it never joining NATO. The US has time and again, said it will not allow Ukraine into NATO, but might provide a different type of security guarantee against any future attack from Russia. Zelenskyy has rightly pointed to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where Kyiv gave up all of its nuclear arsenal in return of security guarantee from Moscow. We all can see how the ‘security guarantee’ is playing out today.
Russia effectively wants to turn Ukraine into a ‘puppet’ state just like Belarus. This has to be a strong red line in any negotiations. On the other hand, US might help Russia get out of a couple of sanction list and increase trade to help its economy. Trump also did a blunder by appearing too hard on Ukraine (and soft on Russia) from the start, which gave too much leverage to Putin to drag things as per his will. Now, there are tough negotiations going on from both sides as Trump wants to add another ‘feather’ in his cap to boost his profile for Nobel Peace Prize. But, since Russia holds an upper hand on the battlefield, it might make it very difficult for Ukraine to get out with a respectable agreement.
At the end, I would just like to salute the courage shown by all the people of Ukraine including their leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy. I know, today Putin enjoys more support and popularity in India than Zelenskyy, and that effectively sums up the sad state of this country’s moral standing. The vile and treacherous actions of Putin have already inflicted hundreds of thousands of casualties, and I sincerely hope that a ceasefire is reached which gives Ukraine space and power to recover from the damage again.
