EDUCATION

Trump’s ‘T’ turn, ‘ceasefire’ obsession throws fresh challenge for India

On February 8, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a successful meeting with newly sworn-in US President Donald Trump at the White House, where both leaders heaped high praise on one another. At that point, Mr Modi was one of the first global leaders to visit Trump in his very early days of presidency. And, while there were some concerns around tariffs and visas, considering the US President’s strict stance on both issues, it was more or less perceived that India need not worry about the second Trump administration.

Fast forward six months, as we stand in August, India’s biggest foreign policy challenge is the United States owing to its rigid stand on tariffs, closeness with Pakistan and continuous bashing of India. I don’t think any foreign policy expert (including me, of course) would’ve anticipated that such a 1960s-1970s situation would transpire in 2025. So, I will decode how the India-US “strategic partnership” reached this point.

Trump’s Tariff Mania

It was clear even before President Trump took office that he would be very strict on tariffs. On April 2, the day he termed ‘Liberation Day’, he unleashed a long list of tariffs on 185 countries. These tariffs ranged from as low as 10% to as high as 120% (on China). India was in the 26% tariff bracket.

While, statements from both India and US side were affirming that the deal will be in place by July-August, on July 30th, unilaterally announced (as he does always) that India will face 25% tariffs plus a ‘penalty’, because of its high tariffs, for purchasing energy and military equipment from Russia, and its “strenuous and obnoxious” non-monetary barriers to trade.

India-US Trade Negotiations

Days after his April 2 announcement, Trump extended the deadline to July 8, and then to August 1, allowing the countries to negotiate trade deals with Washington. Since April 2, Indian delegation led by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, has made multiple visits to the US (and vice versa), in pursuit of negotiating a trade deal. Throughout, India was confident that the deal will be made, and the tariff rate on the country will be reduced.

In between, India ended up clinching a trade deal with the United Kingdom. Under this, India agreed to reduce duties on many goods from the UK (especially huge brands) and receive duty-free entry into UK with goods (like textile, jewellery and food). The deal, which got realized after intense negotiations of three years sparring multiple prime ministers, also allowed greater leverage of exchange of services and people working across the two nations.

One notable point of the India-UK deal was India offered no concession on the imports of dairy, agricultural goods and GM (genetically modified) foods. Now, this was a ‘red line’ which New Delhi also put in the negotiations with Washington. The thing is, India is firm, it won’t allow free entry of agricultural goods as it will pose a stiff challenge to a huge section of the country, dependent on agriculture. Similarly, India won’t be reducing duties on dairy either, because of the ‘religious’ significance held by milk and other dairy products in the country (cattles in the US and foreign countries are also fed non-veg).

According to some reports and latest statement from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, India’s stiff stance on this part, pissed the US off. “India came to the table early. They’ve been slow rolling things. So I think that the President, the whole trade team, has been frustrated with them,” Bessent told CNBC.

The ‘Pakistan’ Factor

Even during his first term, Trump did make a couple of statements of US mediating between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir issue. The trend continued in this term as well. Owing to his obsession for a Nobel Peace Prize, only to match (which he can’t) his first-term predecessor Barack Obama, the US President has continued to point multiple conflicts, where he claims to have brought peace. One of these include the recent ceasefire between India and Pakistan, which he was also the first one to announce.

Now, I have said this, I do believe there was ‘some’ US role in the mediation, or else, no way the ceasefire would’ve come so abruptly. But Mr Trump repeatedly making the claim (30 times as of now), and then even endorsing Pakistan’s claim of “five jets shot down” (though he didn’t say of which side) has irked India. If all this not enough, Trump even hosted the hate mongering Pak Army Chief Asim Munir at White House (Trump believes in speaking with ‘actual’ power holders not puppets). All this while, both he and people from his administration heaped praise on Pakistan as a ‘strong’ and ‘age-old’ partner. Now, what made the situation more complex, is India repeatedly denying any ‘foreign interference’ in the mediation.

At the same time, the major promise Trump led his campaign on was that of a ‘peacemaker’. That image too is now lying in limbo. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which he claimed to end in “one day”, is nearing four years with even more intensity. Israel is in no mood to stop bombing Gaza, ceasefire seems out of question, and worse, US himself got involved in war with Iran. If anything, Trump’s ‘peacemaker’ image is dented to the core. Plus, he is also facing a lot of challenges domestically; first the ugly ‘break-up’ with Musk, then the controversy over Epstein Files (another of his core issues) in addition to the impact of tariffs on domestic economy. The desperation of all this is clearly visible. In order to increase pressure on Moscow, US has now promised increased assistance to Ukraine (the same country, whose president he publicly humiliated) and increased sanctions on Russia (whose leader he lauded).

So, while it seems the tensions is due to trade, there’s more to it. At no point, did anyone thought that ties with Russia will come into question under Trump’s administration, who boasted of having ‘warm ties’ with Putin. At the same time, Trump’s closeness with Pakistan over some “massive oil reserves” and possible rare-earth exploration, is bound to create friction with New Delhi. Trump is expected to visit Pakistan in September, and around same time, can also visit India for the Quad Summit. Again, my gut feel says Trump will try to visit the two countries around the same time and again repeat his ‘ceasefire’ claims. If anything, the issue doesn’t seem boiling down anytime soon.

How Should India Respond?

Tensions with the US both over Pakistan and tariffs, was bound to create a political storm in the country. I don’t have any issue with that. It’s a half-volley for opposition, and they are well within their rights to latch upon it. But, keeping the noise aside, I would like to focus on the issue realistically. It should be clear that the new tensions have nothing to do with India’s foreign policy, and all to do with Trump.

The thing is Trump is an extremely opportunist, unpredictable and narcissist kind of a person. If you consider him your ‘friend’, do it at your own peril. This is also a message for the Indian right-wingers who had also become ‘Andh Bhakt’ of Trump in addition to Modi, for the sole reason of former’s hatred towards Muslims. The lesson is a relationship built on hatred will only reap hatred, today it might be against someone else, tomorrow it might be against you.

Though, personally I believe, India should drop the protection it has even on the agriculture, dairy and GM foods, to some extent, if not fully. I’ve not been a fan of protectionism. 80 years since independence is high time. The fact is India perhaps has the costliest milk in the world despite being one of the largest producers of milk. Yes, it’s also important to protect our national interest, but we also need to stop hiding behind these trade barriers.

I hope the cooler heads prevail, and the Indian leadership doesn’t take any rash decisions. Keeping in mind, it took us 3 years in negotiating trade deal with UK, India should keep patience on the negotiating table. Many are already pointing that Trump will be in office max till 2028, and that too can even be with lesser majority if mid-term polls in 2026 damage him.

“America has no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests”: Henry Kissinger

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