Donald Trump, who came to power in 2024 with a strong mandate, faced a tough reality check last week, as his party lost both the houses of Congress and bunch of Governorships, weakening his command over the party and administration, and leaving him wounded and even more unpredictable for the world. In this Blog, I will decode the deciding factors going into the polls, and the major areas to look upon, going forward.

Trump triumphs again!: What his second presidency means for US, India, world – Arunesh Blog

Midterm Polls 2026

For those who don’t know, in addition to the main presidential elections every four years, the US House of Representatives (lower house) and about one-third of Senate seats (upper house) go to polls every two years. So, all 435 seats of the House and 35 seats of the Senate were up for grabs right in the middle of President Trump’s tenure.

Mr Trump’s victory in 2024 was not just historic in several aspects, but also severely demoralizing for the Democrats. Not just he became the first Republican to win electoral college in 20 years, but his party was able to increase its vote percentage in every single state and among every single community. This was a strong endorsement for Trump’s vision (irrespective of whether you like it or not) and a sharp rebuttal against Biden-Harris administration. Conversations started regarding what’s ahead for Democrats, should they change their style of politics and can they even compete against Trump’s MAGA brigade.

Fast forward to two years, Mr Trump’s tenure – marked by heavy tariffs, cruel ICE deportations and lately the disastrous Iran war – was up for a tough referendum from the American electorate. The Democrats built their whole campaign around rising cost of living and the fuel price hikes emanating from the Iran war. By all means, it was a referendum of Trump’s 2-year tenure. The president being aware of the situation, had paused US strikes on Iran and its proxies in the Gulf, even though he kept threatening to resume them once elections are over. But none of it was going to matter after November 3rd.

However, none of this was going to be enough as what happened on November 3, was a sweeping Blue Wave, not seen in a very long time. While the Republicans held a 220-215 majority in the House and 53-47 in the Senate before the midterms, the numbers currently stand 260-175 and 55-45 in Democrat’s favor. The numbers are enough to show how big a jolt this is for Mr Trump’s remaining presidency. Springing a surprsie, Trump accepted the election results and said he would like to work with Democrats. Though, he still holds the presidential veto, Democrats controlling both houses will be a hell for him.

Abdul El-Sayed with his wife Sarah Jukaku after winning Michigan (Photo: Al Jazeera)

Acton defeated Ramaswamy despite his vicious campaign targeting her personal life (Photo: People.com) 

Historic Firsts

The drubbing that Trump and his party got, however, is not the only reason the elections will be remembered. The 2026 midterms marked many historic firsts in the American history. First and foremost, we have to talk about Abdul el-Sayed, a medical professional, became the first Muslim senator in the US history after winning from Michigan. The road wasn’t easy as after narrowly securing party’s nomination, his runner-up candidate ended up endorsing the Republican face. He faced a tirade from Trump and his fascist base calling him “jihadist, terrorist sympathizer and member of Muslim Brotherhood”. Despite this vicious campaign, Abdul, with his smart and effective campaign, won the Michigan race.

Peggy Flanagan from Minnesota became the first Native American woman in the Senate. Chris Pappas from New Hampshire became the first openly gay male in US Senate. The next feat is very much trending in India as well…Melat Kiros (29) from Colorado, became the first GenZ member to enter US House of Congress. Abeer Kawas from New York also made history as first Hijab-wearing Palestinian-American women to enter the US House of Congress. Now, as Democrats have got the control of House, they are most likely to swear-in the first Black House Speaker in history, Hakeem Jeffries.

It’s very important to talk about Texas, where Democrats won a Senate seat for the first time since 1988, as James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton. In further blow, Democrats even won the Governor election as Gina Hinojosa became the first Democrat Governor in the state since 1990. To describe the magnitude of this, if I have to give an Indian equivalent, it’s like BJP being defeated in Gujarat (IYKYK). Democrats also won Kansas in nearly a century (after 1932).

Another interesting story panned out in Ohio, where Indian-origin Vivek Ramaswamy lost to Amy Acton in governor race. What makes it significant is the vicious campaigning that Ramaswamy did to attack Acton, who was raped by her stepfather and then estranged by her own mother – over her dark past. This went down so bad that many Republicans too started opposing him (of course not Trump). Eventually, as Ramaswamy lost, I genuinely hope, it’s the end of road for this disgraceful bigot of a person.

Trump will be regretting starting the Iran war for the rest of his life (Photo: Al Jazeera)

The Iran War and Other Factors

As they say…it’s the economy, stupid. Now, there are many issues that decide the outcome of an election, but in this case, the Iran war was undoubtedly the tentpole factor behind the results. As I mentioned in my previous blog on the topic, Mr Trump started the most clueless war in American history on February 28, when he launched strikes on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Trump was hoping the war will be wrapped up within weeks if not days, and Washington will install a friendly regime in Tehran. But, Iran – despite losing its supreme leader – didn’t bow down, and by blocking the maritime route through the Strait of Hormuz, ensured that more than enough pain is inflicted economically not just on US but globally. The result was increased fuel costs driving the cost of living and hurting the pockets of public.

In addition to this, Trump’s daily flip-flops on the war, falsely claiming victories when there wasn’t, entering a face-saving deal only to back out of it; all of this made not just Trump but the US look weaker. This was a double whammy for Trump’s base which voted for him trusting on the promise of keeping America out of “useless foreign wars”. Personally, I don’t think Trump had done a bad job for his voter base (deportations, tariffs were always his agenda) before the start of Iran war. But, that changed after February 28.

Another noticeable point of the Republican debacle was the party losing some of its key strongholds and losing ground among almost all communities. Among Hispanic-Latoni community (largest minority in US), the Republican support dropped 30 points to 29% (mainly due to the cruel ICE deportations), among Indian Americans, the support fell 11 points to 19% (due to the anti-immigrant rhetoric and H-1B fiasco). The support fell very sharply among the youths (age 18-29) as well by 33 points to 28%. Currently, the Republicans have been left solely with their core base of conservative white Christians.

Trump’s two arms, Rubio and Vance, will he head locked as top contenders in 2028 (Photo: Reuters)

Road to 2028

It wasn’t even 24 hours to the disastrous results and cracks started emerging in the MAGA camp. Vice President JD Vance, in a long post, lamented how the Iran war has hurt the Trump presidency’s image in general public, particularly the MAGA voters. Citing some of his close data analysts, he said that many Republican voters who voted for Trump in 2024 are “pissed” and will end up voting for Democrats in midterms.

“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so,” he said. It is pertinent to note that Vance was one of the few in Trump’s White House team, who was against the whole idea of Iran war. Reportedly, he even presented some brutal assessments to President Trump regarding the damages sustained by the US in the war.

A major highlight of Vance’s post was that going forward, the Trump administration needs to focus on ending the war, managing the cost of living, keep “America First” and “change our relationship to Israel”. Yes, you read it right. And, Vance has not said something like this for the first time. In the famous Joe Rogan podcast, he alleged that many in Israel are “manipulating” US to keep the war going on “indefinitely”. He even referred to Jeffrey Epstein as someone with close ties to both American and Israeli intelligence and likely tied to the “Mossad or CIA or some other deep state”. Another point to note that during the multiple rounds of negotiations between Iran and US, Tehran ‘preferred’ Vance representing Washington on table, apparently due to his ‘anti-war’ stance.

Now, as Trump’s presidency enters its last two years, and since he can’t hold the top job post that, chatters will open about who is best suited to succeed Mr Trump from the Republican camp. The two top contenders, undoubtedly, will be Vice President Vance and Secretary of State as well National Security Advisor, Marco Rubio. I personally find Rubio much sharper and pragmatic (read the blog below where I’ve described how important he is strong in the Trump administration). Who among the two will Trump endorse (if at all), might decide a lot of things. Vance is averse to wars. Rubio not so much, in fact, has been the brain behind the Venezuela operation and Cuba blockade. This can actually be a deciding factor going ahead.

Just days after midterms, White House Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles was removed from her post, reportedly, for leaking info to press. She joined the list of Katie Zacharia (out after 5 days), Attorney General Pam Bondi, Home Secretary Kristi Noem and Michael Walz (Former NSA moved to US envoy in UN). Also, looking at Trump’s expansive record of falling out with his aides, I won’t be surprised if a couple of more names get kicked out from the White House. The climate is bound to get toxic as there will be more clashes of ideas and personalities. Anyways, it will be very interesting stuff to enjoy with popcorn in hand.

Elon Musk pumped in around $500 million for Republicans in midterms (Photo: Wikipedia)

Musk and the ‘AI’ Concerns

Just borrowing from what many have already said…the biggest loser in the election was someone not on the ballot, Elon Musk. The supremo of Tesla and SpaceX had poured in close to $500 million to help Republicans in midterms but couldn’t help them salvage even their backyard, Texas. The state, home to Musk’s major businesses, also houses the highest number of AI data centers in the country. With the city turning blue, so can Musk’s fate.

There have been stiff opposition to AI data centers among the locals, primarily due to the impact on quality and quantity of water, as well as the irritating sound pollution. Many believe this also played a big role in flipping of Texas. With Democrats regularly advocating for stricter AI regulations – which sent big tech stocks plunging – the future of so-called ‘AI Wave’ will be interesting to look out for.

Way Forward for Democrats

If someone believes that 2028 is a done deal for Democrats now, they are mistaken. In my opinion, this was not that much of a vote for Democrats, than it was a vote against Trump. With different faces on ballot, the voting pattern in 2028 could vary very much. Some of the major names in Democrat circles have been Ex-California Governor Gavin Newsom, liberal New York leader Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), breakout Georgia star Jon Ossoff and Ex-Vice President Kamala Harris (worst possible choice). Many, including me, also want to Former First Lady Michelle Obama breaking barrier as the first woman president in US history, but that doesn’t look on the cards as of now.

It’s very likely that Democrats will go hard against Trump and his family’s personal dealings, the crypto contracts and that beloved ballroom. A year earlier, Zohran Mamdani achieved a historic feat by winning the New York City mayoral race. That was one of the earliest indications that Democrats need to shed their ‘balancing’ politics and take concrete stand on issues. How well they carry these victories in the respective states, and then into the national narrative, will decide the campaign pitch for 2028.  Anyways, the next two years of American politics have all the potential of popcorn roller-coaster ride, and I’m seated.

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