BRITAIN + EXIT = BREXIT … we all have heard this word just so many times … didn’t we ? But isn’t there too much confusion regarding it; what BRITAIN actually wanted to do, why it took so long and how successful it actually was as compared to the claims. In this Article we would like to dig into these questions understanding them.

First … something about EU

EUROPEAN UNION is an economic and political partnership of 28 European nations. It paves the way for a free market throughout Europe, i.e., both goods and people can travel anywhere within the EU member nations freely. Out of them 19 countries share a common currency EURO (some Partial members also run Euro and their own separate currency).

So … why BRITAIN wanted to ‘exit’ from European Union … ?????

See … it should be no surprise that there has always been a sense of Exceptionalism in Britain specially after World War II heroics. From very beginning Britain was having the mindset that EU is Anti-British which is somehow done to them and is hampering them from progressing further. It was not a new thing, UK actually held a referendum back in 1967 only, even less than 3 years after it joined and at that time 67% people supported staying in the Bloc.

This time, a big issue for them was Immigration, since EU allowed anyone from any country within the EU to immigrate to any other country within the EU. Being a developed and economically strong country seemed to be penalizing for Britain as most of the migration started concentrating towards Britain only. So, there was the environment that EU is dangerous and they should get out of it. During 2013, Britain was going through economic recession and the ruling party blamed it all on Immigration and EU. Also the opposition was posing threat as an Anti EU, NIGIL FARAGE was all set to offer the public what they badly wanted. The sitting prime minister DAVID CAMERON had no option than promising an in-out Brexit Referendum if he won the 2015 Elections (he was confident that votes will be single handedly in favor of ‘Remain’), which he did and then … finally came the big day … 23rd June 2016.

The 2016 Referendum

The much anticipated day came up with huge surprises as a highly emotive public went 52% to 48% in favor of opting out of EU. DAVID CAMERON resigned right after this, after his political miscalculation. He would not have been able to take care of BREXIT anyway while fighting collapsing ‘Sterling’ and rising distrust for him as the supreme leader. On the Referendum, while voters in England and Wales supported BREXIT those in Ireland, Scotland and even London were against it and while younger people voted to remain, older voted for Exit. But … well we know who outnumbered whom.

Now, as the emotive crowd was expecting the exit didn’t happened properly and as swiftly as was expected, because the matter got stuck over the issue of future of Northern Ireland, what will happen to it. Actually IRELAND is divided into two parts (Republic of Ireland which is a EU member and Northern Ireland which is part of UK) The issue proved to be an Everest for next PM THERESA MAY as well. Ireland never wanted a border running over it, the issue emerged even after 1960s clashes and ‘Good Friday Agreement’ called for a Border Free Ireland. Finally after the resounding victory of BORIS JOHNSON the issue got resolved when he and Irish premier LEO VARADKAR finally broke the impasse by deciding to shift the 300 mile border away from Northern Ireland by which it will be subject to EU legal framework but will remain quite far from UK. It will literally make the border visible now which wasn’t the case till now (Still no one dared to call it ‘British Occupied Ireland’ .. Bloody Hypocrites). Then at the stroke of midnight on 31st January the Divorce between UK and EU officially happened through a 585 page Agreement. The majority gave JOHNSON the rights to make the legislations he wanted to for setting the tone for Britain’s departure, something which eluded his predecessors.

Terms of the Agreement

Though the BREXIT has officially happened but currently Britain is under a 11 month ‘Transition Period’ where it will decide further course of action while abiding by Bloc’s rules. During this period Britain can avail the benefits of being in EU while not actually being in it. According to Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, the first day outside EU for Britain can be postponed further also, but it doesn’t seem happening as Boris Johnson has already ruled out any such chances.

Right from 1st January 2021, the people of UK will no longer be EU citizens, though the passport holders will be able to work and travel within EU and UK might face some Tariffs on its exports which it was not facing earlier. The UK will be still following the EU rules but will have no say in making them as Article 50 is over once and for all. While EU always wanted UK to stay back but at the same time UK can’t have its cake and eat it, ie, retaining the benefits while diverging from the rules.

The Complications

Actually after the notice came regarding Brexit back in 2017, a two year departure path was set so due date would have fallen on 29th March 2019, but due to hardline pro Brexit not favoring MAY’s BREXIT deal, saying it might trap Britain in European market … it got delayed. MAY’s statement after becoming PM was “the British people voted for change… And it is the job of this government to deliver it” … but speaking is always easier than doing. She projected her vision for BREXIT on Feb 2, 2017. According to it UK would …

• not be seeking membership of the EU’s single market
• pursue a new strategic partnership with the EU
• pursue a new customs arrangement with the EU to secure new trade agreements with other countries bilaterally and in wider groupings.

It was ‘Hard Brexit’ MAY regularly pleaded for more time and after much debate, October 31st was agreed. But after JOHNSON took over, he faced some resentment asking for some cushion or we can say opt for ‘Soft Brexit’ to have some Cushion to face the sudden blow. Now, JOHNSON had to seek 3 month extra time (though he said he would rather be ‘Dead in a Ditch’ than do so). Also, UK owes $39 Billion which it has to pay by the due date.

What will be the Impact on Britain and Rest of the Europe

It is clear that what will be the actual impact and it will come out with time. While the Britishers will be able to work freely anywhere in the EU during the transition period, but after that they will have to register and seek permission for the same. This is a big blow for the working age youngsters as they wanted at least ‘Free Travel’ to be a part of the agreement even after BREXIT. Though government assures that Britain will not have to face deportation or loss, truth is that the moment will cast a long shadow of material consequence.

Surprisingly, though it is UK who is losing out in every respect, but EU will also end being weakened economically and politically as UK was EU’s second-biggest economy, a major net budget contributor, key military force and one of the bloc’s two nuclear powers and permanent UN security council member which helped LONDON to cement its position as the Global Financial Centre. This episode has also turned up a lesson for all the Nationalist and Eurosceptic parties, as the sense of support has actually increased within the rest of the EU members.

Conclusion : What happens Now

Economy of Britain and whole of EU is set to take a fall after BREXIT (it has already taken due to COVID-19). There are many companies who are big source of employment and are thinking of relocating which will again create chaos. One thing for sure is that, it is merely the beginning of a potentially more volatile chapter of the turbulent divorce. It will have significant impacts both political and economical on both EU as well as the rest of the world. How deep are the impacts and how does everyone ‘Cushions’ it … is what matters the most.

JAI HIND

ARUNESH SINHA

 

References :

1. Brexit explained: how it happened and what comes next ; by Jon Henley in Paris, Jennifer Rankin in Brussels, and Lisa O’Carroll, Jan 27, 2020 https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/jan/27/brexit-explained-how-it-happened-and-what-comes-next
2. What’s the deal (or no-deal) with Brexit? Here’s everything explained ; by Giovanni Di Lieto, Jan 18, 2020 https://theconversation.com/whats-the-deal-or-no-deal-with-brexit-heres-everything-explained-110024