If everyone including me was predicting a rocky path for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the assembly elections after its juggernaut was shaken (not stopped) in the 2024 general elections, we were all proven wrong, as the BJP was quick to assess its mistakes, made amendments in its poll strategy and also orchestrated some ‘arrangements’ to flip the tide, and as we stand in 2025, BJP has won 3 out of the five assembly elections, and all the wins have come up defying the odds.

But, the biggest shocker came in the Delhi elections, where the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party, riding on two terms of unprecedentedly huge mandates, faced a huge drubbing at the hands of BJP. The magnitude of the loss was so huge that the party’s supremo Arvind Kejriwal, and almost all big leaders (barring Atishi) lost their own seats. Now, as BJP marks its return in the national capital after 27 years. So, in this blog, I will decode how these results panned out or were ‘made’ to pan out, what it means for national politics, India’s democracy and what the future holds for Arvind Kejriwal.

 

What hampered the Delhi government’s performance?

Now, this happens to be a step-by-step process. Delhi, being a half-state is always bound to have issues with the Centre-appointed Lieutenant Governor, especially if this LG happens to be from the rival party. And similar, actually even more confrontational was the relationship between the AAP government and the LG, especially with this VK Saxena. Now, there has never been doubt that law, order, and land in Delhi are the domain of the centre (or centre-appointed bodies). But in its bid to hamper the governance in Delhi, the BJP tried to puncture the whole chain of the federal system, making the government officers directly answerable to the LG, instead of the elected government in the national capital.

When in huge respite for the Delhi government as well as the Delhi people, the Supreme Court in 2023, ruled that the officers in the national capital will have to be accountable to the Delhi government and not the LG, it sent shivers down the spine of some spineless, and within a week, the Centre was ready with an ordinance to circumvent the SC ruling and hand over the accountability of the officers back to the LG. Additionally, the new law made LG the ultimate authority for any legislation passed y the assembly and formed a 3-member committee comprising the CM and two Centre-appointed officers to make major decisions (see the irony of the situation, the two officers can themselves make a decision 2:1, even if a publicly-elected landslide mandate-holding CM opposes it).

At this point, the national capital effectively came under the LG’s control, and you could have found the BJP IT cell celebrating “Kejriwal becomes lame-duck CM.” So, from then on, expecting accountability from the Delhi government actually doesn’t make sense because the government, which was elected by the people with an unprecedented majority, was completely stripped of its democratic powers.

The results of this overhaul resulted in a complete breakdown of Delhi. From potholes in roads to poor-quality water and from mismanaged sewage to the garage mountains, all you get to see is a total mess. Now, of course, the AAP government’s misjudged focus and complacency (of 2 huge wins) was also a critical factor in this situation, but we can’t actually hold the AAP government to account properly until it is provided with full powers to discharge its designated duties.

AAP Ministers repeatedly alleged that LG was halting their crucial legislations, from important foreign training programs for teachers and students to medicines at Mohalla Clinics. If this was indeed the situation, then one can just imagine how the government was even functioning. If all this was not enough, AAP’s whole core leadership was jailed and pounded with one case after the other, and it is no brainer that in such a scenario, the party’s majority focus would go towards these cases, rather than governance. 

Arvind Kejriwal emerged as an anti-corruption crusader with a vision to change politics (Photo: Caravan)

How AAP defeated its own Idea

Arvind Kejriwal, the anti-corruption crusader, who rose up the ranks through advocacy for RTI and honest governance, had a huge opportunity to change the politics, in actual sense. Now, it would be false to say he didn’t do anything. The transformation of Delhi’s government schools and the innovative idea of ‘Mohalla Clinics’ marked a landmark change, but as it is said ‘power is poison’, slowly, AAP also started resorting to other means to counter BJP and other parties. From giving tickets to not so clean candidates, only on the winnability factor to even allegations of corruption making its way into the party, whose very origin was against it. And all of this

Now, nothing has been proven in the liquor policy case, but there are some tough questions the AAP needs to answer regarding its framing of the policy. now, I agree that fighting elections need truck loads of money, and when you are up against someone like BJP which earned Rs 6000 crore through electoral bonds, in comparison to your Rs 48 crore (Yes you read it right), you might need some monetary help, but if you call yourself a ‘Kattar Imaandaar’ the bar will always be high for you. Even bigger blot on the ‘Aam Aadmi’ image was the ‘Sheesh Mahal’ controversy. Now, again the house was a CM residence, not a personal house for Mr Kejriwal and perhaps all Union Ministers would be having a house similar to that, but the selective outrage of the Godi Media, and again, the perception created by none other than Kejriwal himself, (won’t take sarkari house, sarkari car, sarkari protection) made it appear as a huge diversion from the ideals party once stood for.

Yogendra Yadav, one of AAP’s founding members and critic of Kejriwal, rightly pointed out that, once AAP deviated from its unique idea, and started looking like just any other party, it also lost all its USP. Its voters, who voted for AAP, because they saw a vision of a new and unique politics, now had no reason to support the party, especially when even its arch rivals JP (and Congress too for instance) are promising quite similar schemes. Also, despite being in power for so long, AAP failed to develop a core ideology. Sometimes, it was abusing Rohingyas and Bangladeshis, sometimes it was asking to put ‘The Kashmir Files’ on YouTube, sometimes it was refraining to take a clear support for Bilkis Bano, and sometimes it was requesting to print Laxmi Ganesh on currency notes. I mean…can you even find one concrete and consistent ideology in this pattern? As a result, neither did it retain all Muslim voters, nor did the bait give it any upper edge among Hindu voters.

VK Saxena will go down as the biggest blot on democratic federalism (Photo: Live Law)

How the 2025 campaign fared?

Now, let’s look at how the election campaign panned out. Ever since Kejriwal came out of jail, he knew the tide is against him, and he needs to do something to pull off a miracle. Firstly, he announced his resignation as the chief minister, vowing that he would not sit on the CM chair till the public gives him the “certificate of honesty” by making him win the elections. Well, Delhi seems to have denied him that chance. Another notable point in AAP’s campaigning was that Kejriwal knew that he had lost much of his touch with the people — which actually used to be his USP — so he now decided to return to basics by hitting the streets through foot marches, nukkad sabhas to redevelop the lost connect.

This time, the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party knew that there are many areas, where it has failed to perform, either out of incompetence or due to the Centre’s conspiracy. So, this time AAP decided to hit the campaign trail early and capture the political narrative, so as to beat anti-incumbency. Initially, it was all coming out quite well, with AAP announcing one scheme after the other (Rs 2100 monthly for women, free health treatment for the aged, and salaries for temple, gurdwara priests). Again, the schemes, initially, did keep the tide in AAP’s favour, but slowly, the game started tilting.

 

Congress shed its earlier style, and came out hard against the AAP this time (Photo: The Economic Times) 

 

The Congress Factor

A very critical factor this time around was the Congress party. Yes, despite how irrelevant one might think this party, especially in Delhi, the party held around 4-5% votes in 2020 elections, and when the two main parties are separated by a small margin (AAP’s 54% and BJP’s 40%), the vote share of Congress becomes critical in deciding the fate of the elections. And unlike last time, Congress was in no mood to give AAP an easy pass this time. Considering the damage AAP has inflicted upon Congress’ vote shares in Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab (AAP grabbed the whole government) and even Delhi for the matter, which actually marked the decline of the grand old party; this time it decided to fight vigorously and ensure that AAP LOSES, even if it comes at the cost of bringing BJP to power.

Subsequently, Congress put up the strongest candidates possible for every seat. That’s why we saw, Sandeep Dikshit against Kejriwal, Alka Lamba against Atishi and Farhad Suri against Sisodia. On as many as 18 seats, Congress candidates were picked after detailed analysis of caste combination and other winnability factors. Rahul Gandhi, who had shared the stage with Kejriwal’s wife, when the former CM was in jail in connection with the liquor policy case just months ago, affirming support against ‘dictatorship’, was now coming down heavily against the same Kejriwal and his party, accusing him over the same ‘scam’. All this strategy couldn’t help Congress in opening its account in Delhi, with the party scoring a third consecutive duck, but its other aim of denting AAP did come off, as on as many as 16 seats, AAP’s losing margin was less than the votes polled by the Congress candidate, including that of Kejriwal (Dikshit taking ‘Maa ka badla’) and Sisodia (he lost by just 675 votes).

A Complete Mockery of Election Commission

The whole election campaigning was a mockery of the Election Commission of India as the BJP leaders were easily distributing money, liquor and other expensive gifts among poor voters. beneficiary women said on record that Parvesh Verma gave them Rs 1100, and promised to provide full Rs 2500 after coming to power, a factor they say, played a big role in their voting for him. Verma, even himself, for the matter, accepted giving money (he claimed it’s part of some nGO). Just tell me, how was this not a clear violation of the model code of conduct?

This was perhaps the first election in Delhi, where even journalists and party workers were being attacked. And, the way, mainstream media underplayed this. Had it been Bihar or Bengal, everyone would have started their ‘Jungle Raj’ cry. Even after MCC did fall in place, and clear instructions were out that no mention can be made in the budget regarding the Delhi elections, there were full-page advertisements by BJP of how ‘Modi Ji’ is giving so many benefits to the middle class in the budget.

AAP saw perhaps the worst witchhunt against a party since independence (Photo: Business Standard) 

The Voter List ‘Fraud’

 

Ever since the start of the campaign, AAP came up with shocking allegations of “large-scale fraud” being committed in the voter list. It came up with a huge list of names, which it claimed were AAP voters, are being deliberately deleted from the list to shift the poll outcome. Following this, several news portals started a ground report, which also confirmed the same that many people were actually complaining that their names have been deleted from the voter list, with them not even being informed (It’s mandatory to inform the concerned person if his/her name is being deleted). Most of these deleted voters are from those living in jhuggis, which comprises a sizable chunk of Delhi voters, and are traditionally considered AAP voters (as they are among major beneficiaries of AAP’s schemes). So, these voter deletion allegations, which prima facie, do look true, were undoubtedly a HUGE dent for AAP ahead of polls.

Now, for a while, if this voter deletion scares you, it should also be noted that this was combined with rampant voter additions as well. Around 4 lakh voters were added in Delhi from the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, and just in the next 6-7 months, another 4 lakh got added. How? And this steep rise is despite all the voter deletions we spoke about. If all this doesn’t sound fishy enough to you, take note of the fact that as many as 32 applications for new voters were made from one single residence…that of Parvesh Sahe Singh Verma

For a fact,  just from Arvind Kejriwal’s new Delhi constituency (small constituency of less than 1,50,000 voters), around 40,000 voter deletions were carried out, and again, this was in addition to the suspicious voter additions (The 32 new voters from one residence also occurred here only). Now, of course, several factors were driving the anti-incumbency in the national capital, many fronts where AAP did falter, and many fronts where the BJP was smart enough in campaigning, but…and this is a long but, the result that eventually came out, couldn’t have been possible, if not for these rampant and worrisome discrepancies with the voter list.

The Election Results

February 8, the day marked a huge turnaround in the national politics. Though the exit polls had already given a clear picture of BJP dislodging decade-old rule of the AAP from the national capital, the horrific record of exit polls lately had kept the suspense alive till the result day. As slowly, the counting began, the picture, which initially seemed little close, started tilting much to what the exit polls had predicted. BJP, which was reduced to single-digits since 2015, this time ended up winning 48 seats, while AAP, which had swept the last two polls, was reduced to mere 22 seats. What made this result further significant was all the ig names of AAP losing: Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Satyendar Jain, and Saurabh Bhardwaj. Atishi and Gopal Rai were perhaps the only ig leaders who won. This was a huge huge and crushing verdict against the AAP and its ‘Delhi Model’.

Now, whether you are an AAP supporter or not, this result is a huge shock for anyone who is a supporter of democracy. No, not because AAP is the sole custodian of democracy, but because the idea of Aam Aadmi Party that had promised a ‘new politics’ and a departure from the age-old caste and religion based politics, that IDEA has lost, and there is no clear answer as to what will happen to that idea now.

Delhi CM Rekha Gupta (Photo: The Hindu)

A Delhi under BJP

After storming to power after a huge gap of 27 years, the BJP spent a good time pondering over their CM face. Much of this was also delayed because Prime Minister Modi was on a trip to the United States and France. The main contenders anyways were Parvesh Verma (who defeated Kejriwal), Vijender Gupta (senior-most leader in Delhi), but it had became amply clear that the would go for a woman face this time, in bid to counter its ‘anti-woma’ image, and also to negate the fact that it doesn’t have even one woman CM in the whole country.

 

Eventually, the party decided to go with Rekha Gupta, first-time MLA and a long-time party worker, who has been associated with the RSS since the 1990s. She coming from the ‘baniya’ community and also being a woman is a counter to both Kejriwal and Atishi, and also a way for the party to hold on to the middle class, whose votes played a big role in this verdict. Now, the cabinet has leaders ranging from communal and controversial names like Parvesh Verma and Kapil Mishra (who incited riots in 2020), which is a huge fall from a cabinet which had Rhodes, LSE, and MIT scholars. BJP, which was a fierce opposition, especially on the issues of Yamuna cleaning, pollution and other civic issues, will need to put up a really good show, keeping in mind it will have a ‘fully supportive’ LG, and should not be an issue for them, if it has the intent.

 

What Future holds for Kejriwal? 

Now, there is no doubt that Mr Kejriwal has been pushed miles ack in the list of probable challengers, in the post-Modi world. Even from Rahul Gandhi’s point of view, this is a good result, as he remains the tallest leader in the opposition, though still has miles to cover. Also, just like we saw in Delhi, Congress might now opt for more hard bargaining with its allies. For Mr Kejriwal, unfortunately, things are going to only get tough and tougher. More cases, more coercive action and even more arrests for the matter, can be seen in the coming years. And, for a change, unlike the previous times, this time, Kejriwal might not get the support of other opposition leaders.

One should also be worried about the way democracy was murdered in the country’s very national capital, first by squeezing the powers of a democratically-elected government, then hounding AAP’s top leadership in jail, despite unproven charges, and finally with all the damage inflicted upon the voter list and ‘biased’ campaigning.

However, writing an obituary of Arvind Kejriwal and his politics is not something I would agree with. The man, who emerged out of nowhere, formed a political party as well as the government within a year, became a national party within 10 years, and also became the first party (other than BJP and Congress) to have governments in more than one state. Even in the outcome of this loss, AAP still holds over 43% of the vote share in Delhi. So, you can do anything, but write off someone like Arvind Kejriwal. The man is a fighter, and despite all this, still the most ambitious among all the opposition leaders combined.

For Kejriwal, the easiest route can be to enter Rajya Saha and obtain some sort of constitutional protection, but, what the AAP sources tell me, this idea is not what the AAP supremo is willing to do, maybe because it will present him as someone hiding behind an easy protection. Anyway, his first priority would be to defend Punja (the only state it holds) at any cost. Also, Kejriwal not being even an MLA, can be a blessing in disguise for the three-time CM. He can focus extensively on the party’s expansion, especially in states like Goa, Gujarat and Haryana (his home state). Instead of being just another opposition leader, he can work to ‘redevelop’ the party’s unique brand, and most importantly, develop some clarity on the party’s ‘ideology’, the aspect, party’s supporters and critics, both claim it lacks.

Everyone knows I have been a supporter of AAP, but at the same time, I have been honest with all the criticism and elaborated how it disappointed many. I still believe that amid BJP’s vision of a ‘Hindu Rashtra’ and Congress’ return to old-age caste-based politics, Kejriwal can present a fresh and unique vision for the country riding on the plank of quality education and healthcare. Quoting a famous dialogue, ‘Why do we fall sir?’, I would like to end my blog, on the note that a Kejriwal defeated can be a Kejriwal on the up and up, and there can be no greater revenge for Delhi, than springing a surprise in Gujarat. IYKYK.

 

“True democracy is not run by twenty people sitting in Delhi. The power centres now are in capital cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. I would like to distribute these power centres in seven lakh villages of India”: Arvind Kejriwal