June 21, 2024; Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh came to India on a state visit. She received a rousing red carpet welcome, was accorded state honours and big dignitaries including the Prime Minister and President met her. Fast forward to 1.5 months later, Sheikh Hasina again arrived in India on August 5, but this time, there was no red carpet welcome for her, no one came to greet her and her visit too was kept under wraps. This was how much the situation had changed in a couple of weeks. Sheikh Hasina was no longer the Prime Minister of Bangladesh.

She had resigned and fled to India seeking refuge after a student protest, turned into a massive anti-government movement. This is the story of Bangladesh and how the country born out of a revolution in 1971, changed its course with another revolution in 2024, and where the country, once termed Asia’s rising star, is headed and where it leaves India. I know I got a bit late on this, but the episode is consequential for the region’s geopolitics.

The Origin of Bangladesh

Most of you would be knowing that after the 1947 partition, two regions were carved out of India — West Pakistan (what we recognize as Pakistan today) on the left and East Pakistan (what is today’s Bangladesh) on the right. The founders of Pakistan believed that they could define a country based on Islam, but forgot the simple fact that a country is characterised by its people, their thoughts and their cultures, and an identity can’ be imposed onto them. I guess many in India, too need this lesson today.

Anyways, coming back to the topic, as time progressed, despite being more in terms of population, and resources and making maximum contribution to exports, East Pakistan had to suffer from massive economic discrimination. East Pakistan was hit by Cyclone Bhola in 1970 which killed around 3-5 lakh people. But, even then, little assistance was provided by West Pakistan to its eastern half. The discrimination now also started getting at the linguistic level, as the Pakistani (West) dispersion imposed Urdu as the official language of the entire Pakistan, even though it was a complete Bengali culture that was prevalent in East Pakistan. Notably, Urdu might be the ‘official’ language, but not the primary language even in Pakistan, it’s Punjabi (Ha Ha).

Now, came the 1970 elections. There were 138 and 162 seats in West and East Pakistan respectively. While the Pakistan Peoples Party of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto won 81 seats in West Pakistan, it was a complete Awami League sweep in East Pakistan under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, which won a whopping 160 seats. This effectively meant a shift of power from the West to the East. Now, Awami League would have governed the entire Pakistan and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman would have become the Prime Minister of the entire Pakistan. But, a secular leadership leading Pakistan? This didn’t go well with the theocratic establishment. The military ruler, Yahya Khan (in partnership with Bhutto) refused to accept the results and imposed martial law. Now, this was going to be the last nail in the coffin.

The martial law led to even stronger dissent in East Pakistan, as commoners especially students came together under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s leadership demanding ‘complete freedom.’ Again, the Pakistani military resorted to a brutal crackdown. ‘Operation Searchlight’ was launched under which Pakistani Army killed and tortured protestors and raped women. As the situation started getting severe, India’s Prime Minister Indira Gandhi ordered a full-out war against Pakistan. The historic 1971 Liberation War concluded with the independence of Bangladesh and over 93,000 Pak soldiers surrendering. This was the beginning of a new chapter…Amaar Sonar Bangla!

Sheikh Mujibur Rahman gave call for ‘complete freedom’ which paved way for Bangladesh’s formation after 1971 War (Photo: The Daily Star)

Mujib’s Assassination, Military Rule and Return of Democracy

Mujibur Rahman, after coming to power, carried out a strong action against those accused of “war crimes”. The intensity of this probe was a par with the international crime tribunal that punished the Nazis after the Second World War. He also clamped down against any opposition from Marxist or other insurgent force. All this started building a huge deal of resentment within the party as well as in some sections of the country. This was exacerbated by economic struggles the country was facing and the massive famine of 1974 (killing lakhs).

Eventually, a group of junior army officers turned rogue and reached Mujib’s residence with tanks and ammunition. 18 including Mujib himself were brutally assassinated by the officers. The whole family was finished. Only two members; Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehanna survived because they were in West Germany. Later, the two were given refuge in India by Mrs Gandhi. It is widely believed that the CIA and Pakistan’s ISI were behind this assassination, as both nations were very close friends back then.

After the military took power, a few years later, General Ziaur Rahman took over the reins and became President. He tried to slowly rejuvenate democracy in the country by allowing political parties to contest. But, just when Bangladesh seemed near achieving a democracy, Zia too was assassinated by a dissident group of military. This again showed, how deeply divided Bangladesh’s military has been with elements of Pakistan, original Bangladesh and other rogue ideas still present. This was followed by General Ershad taking over as a dictator and later becoming the President. In the 1980s, two big names; Ziaur Rahman’s widow Khaleda Zia and Mujibur Rahman’s daughter Sheikh Hasina returned to Bangladesh and jointly presented a challenge to the Ershad regime.

Slowly, public protests started mounting. Once again, students actively led the call for democracy. Ultimately, General Ershad had to bow down and he resigned. It was followed by the 1991 elections, believed to be the “most free and fair till date.” Mrs Zia won power in 1991, followed by Mrs Hasina in 1996 before Zia returned to power in 2001. However, the transition of power in 2006 was not that smooth, as parties found it difficult to form a consensus on an interim government, which would oversee the election. Eventually, the polls were held in December 2008 and the Awami League stormed back to power. Not many knew this would turn out to be a really long run and consequential tenure(s).

Sheikh Hasina, emerged Bangladesh’s most consequential leader but ran with country with an iron hand fuelling dissent (Photo: Business Standard)

Hasina’s Iron Hand and Repercussions

Sheikh Hasina, returned to power for her second term in 2009. Ever since then, Bangladesh has undergone rapid economic progress, emerging as a shining economic power in the region (its economic growth even surpassed that of India’s for a while). On the foreign policy front too, she asserted Dhaka strongly. Despite maintaining friendly ties with China, she was a very good friend of India. Hasina government also cracked down on the terrorists and insurgent groups operating in India’s North-East.

How much India-Bangladesh ties progressed under Hasina can be understood by comparing the ties under her predecessors. India was never that comfortable with BNP under Khaleda Zia. Ever since 2009, India complained of insurgents operating from Bangladesh but to no avail. In 2012, President Pranab Mukherjee, during his Bangladesh visit wanted to meet ex-PM Khaleda Zia, but it didn’t happen, showing the cracks between the perception of India among the two parties.

The India-Bangladesh cooperation also rose with multiple infrastructure and connectivity projects. Mongla Port, made with Indian assistance, and Matarbari deep-sea port in Bangladesh, scheduled to be operational by 2027, are some of the major projects for Dhaka’s trade and commerce. The Akhaura-Agartala Cross-Border Rail Link, the development of road connectivity between North-East and Bangladesh being made with Japan’s assistance as well as the Farakka water treaty (though contentious due to West Bengal’s concerns) are other major projects showing how deeply and heavily New Delhi invested in Dhaka over the years to make sure the foundation of our ties remain strong.

But, every good thing has an expiry date. Ever since she returned to power, Hasina ran the whole country with an iron hand. Slowly, she established total control over the party as well as on the institutions. She set up her loyalists across the government machinery, election commission and even judiciary; cracked down on the opposition, committed human rights excesses and jailed leaders, critics and even journalists who opposed her. Though she faced the challenge of radicalism in her country, her treatment was definitely far-fetched. Riding on total control over the whole machinery, she easily won the 2014 and 2019, elections which were labelled “unfair” and “sham”.

Bangladeshi Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus (will discuss more on him later) rightly said that there is a large youth population, who have never voted in a fair election in whole their life, and their outrage against the Hasina government was brewing. Further anti-incumbency rose due to high prices, massive unemployment and the post-Covid impact on the economy, especially the garment industry (the biggest market of Bangladesh). The biggest challenge came ahead of the 2024 elections. By now, it was almost a one-way traffic. Jamaat was already banned. The BNP too decided to boycott the elections, alleging majority of their leaders were in jail.

Another interesting feature was that India gave full support to Hasina despite her subversion of democracy and poor human rights record (well India isn’t good at it either). So, this also started creating an anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, especially amongst a huge majority which started equating Hasina with India. Also, the negative referencing of Bangladeshis in Indian politics (infiltrators and termites) and anti-Muslim rhetoric worsened India’s case. The opposition BNP, Jamaat and even a huge chunk of youth now resorted to the ‘India Out’ movement, in line with what Mohamed Muizzu did in the Maldives.

In the elections, Hasina won 222 seats out of 300, but around 60-70 winners were independents. The critics allege these independents were none other than Hasina’s pawns who were fielded to reduce her victory margin a little and make the election look ‘fair’. Also, the voter turnout was a mere 35%. Several Western countries, especially the United States took extra interest in these elections, denouncing the results and calling for a ‘free and fair election’ (something they didn’t say in the case of Pakistan). But, since India saw a long-trusted and reliable partner in Hasina, it never commented on Bangladesh’s ‘internal matters’ and decided to strive for the status quo. But, as many experts say, India underestimated the intensity of anti-India sentiment and the outrage against Hasina. What followed, caught both Hasina and India off-guard.

Bangladesh was taken by storm by a massive anti-quota student protests (Photo: Economic Times)

How did the protests start?

The protests in Bangladesh began in opposition to a quota system in government jobs. Under this, the total reservations stood at 56%, of which 30% were for the ‘veterans’ of the 1971 Liberation War. Now, this ‘veteran’ was a very vague term, as we know revolutionaries fought even against the then Pakistani Army, so it is not easy to decide, who actually qualifies as a veteran; as it can be a Muktibahini member, Army personnel who turned against Pakistan or even normal civilian fighting for freedom. So, there were allegations that anyone with close association with the Awami League was easily eligible for the benefits and the system effectively created an Awami League loyalist government structure and paved corruption.

What raised eyebrows further was that these reservation benefits were further extended to the children of ‘veterans’ in 1997 and in 2010, to their grandchildren as well. The outrage intensified further, as the country was grappling with high unemployment, and the youth complained that they are competing for only 44% of jobs while over half of the jobs are reserved for a group, whose population is hardly 1%.

In 2018, the Bangladesh government bowed down to pressure and ended the quota system. But, a fresh petition by a veteran’s family in 2021, reignited the debate. In March this year, the Dhaka High Court reintroduced the quotas. This further sparked outrage as students took to the streets demanding an end to the quota system. They were also sceptic of Sheikh Hasina’s intentions, as she had supported these quotas for long. The protests, which commenced in July were largely peaceful but the way Mrs Hasina decided to handle the situation made the situation worse. The police and security forces resorted to a brutal crackdown on students.

Additionally, PM Hasina even unleashed her party’s student wing (Chhatra League) against the student protestors labelling them as pawns of BNP and Jamaat. Now, there’s no hiding that BNP and Jamaat indeed participated and supported the student protests (like any smart political opponent would and should do), but based on that, being the  Prime Minister of the country, instead of taking students into confidence, if you are labelling them as ‘anti-nationals’, then no one can save you from being doomed. The days ahead were not going to be easy for Mrs Hasina.

A strong visual from Bangladesh shows protestors shaking hands with the military (Photo: Reuters)

The Hasina Regime ends…..

On July 8, Sheikh Hasina went on a visit to China, but surprisingly, she cut short her visit and returned 3 days later, citing the ‘ill-health’ of her family members. At that time, reports surfaced that maybe Hasina was unable to crack the agreements with Beijing that she was looking for, but soon it started becoming clear why she had to return. The protests in her country had taken a severe turn with now cases of violence being reported. Now, police (of course on government direction) took even harsher measures, ordering shoot-at-sight. Several cases of forced abductions, tortures and excesses were also being reported against protestors.

The last nail in the coffin came when Sheikh Hasina, who though was herself opposing the quota reservation in the court, in her address said, “Why is there so much opposition to reservation for veteran’s children. If children of veterans won’t get a reservation, will children of ‘Razakaars’ get?”. Now, Razakaar is a loaded term in Bangladesh, referring to those who sided with Pakistan in the 1971 war, effectively ‘traitors’. From now on, it was completely Hasina vs Students in the country. The protest intensified further and even prompted students to chant slogans “Tui ke, ami ke…Razakaar Razakaar” (Who are you? Who am I? Razakaar Razakaar).

Interestingly, the Bangladesh Supreme Court now intervened on the High Court order and reduced the reservation cap to 7%, of which 5% will be for relatives for veterans and 2% for other categories. This verdict did settle the issue, but the outrage continued as over 200 students had already died in the protests. The student groups led by ‘Students Against Discrimination’ now demanded the release of all students and leaders arrested and an unconditional apology from Sheikh Hasina. It also warned of restarting the protests if the demands are not met. Another point of outrage came when a video showed officials dumping 36 unidentified bodies (most probably protestors) on the outskirts of the city. Upon realising that the Hasina government was in no mood for negotiations, the student protests restarted with an even higher severity.

The protestors were now straightaway demanding the resignation of Sheikh Hasina for “murdering” the students. August 4 marked the most violent day in the protests when over 100 protestors were killed in a single day. This perhaps was the tipping point, as now even the Bangladesh armed forces started restraining from shooting at students. The situation escalated to the extent that Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman, also a relative of Sheikh Hasina (cousin-in-law), told the Prime Minister that the forces would no longer attack the students. The security officials also asked PM Hasina to resign and leave the country ASAP as angry protestors were heading towards the ‘Ganabhaban’ (PM’s residence). After resisting for a while, Hasina agreed upon the insistence of her own children.

Mrs Hasina wanted to address the nation, but time was running out, all she had was some 45 minutes before protestors stormed in, so she had to resign then and there. She reportedly, couldn’t even pack her stuff and along with her sister Sheikh Rehanna, just went into an Air Force helicopter and fled to India, after requesting a stay on very short notice. Moments later the protestors wreaked havoc in the PM’s residence, spreading all over the living room, bedroom and swimming pool and taking out stuff ranging from dresses, furniture and even…fish. That’s how Sheikh Hasina’s near 20-year rule was uprooted in a major uprising. She had underestimated the uprising and very badly so. The woman who claimed the legacy of the country’s founding father ‘Bangabandhu’ was kicked out in the most disgusting fashion being labelled as an ‘enemy of the state’.

Outraged protestors in Bangladesh attacking Founding Father’s statue (Photo: Malay Mail)

Aftermath and Violence

Ever since Hasina fled from Bangladesh, on expected lines, a new set of violence started as the outraged students, as well as the opposition (BNP and Jamaat), were in full-on revenge mode. All Awami League offices and party leaders became the soft targets of the infuriated mobs and were attacked and properties set on fire. The most moving visuals, however, were of mobs demolishing and even peeing on the statues of the country’s founding father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. This underscored a massive churning in the ideology and idea, that Bangladesh is built on. Additionally, the India Cultural Centre and some other buildings connected with Indian heritage were also attacked showing the contempt protestors had for India.

The attacks also targeted the minority Hindu population in Bangladesh. As I said, the radical elements in Bangladesh were long suppressed and were just waiting to unleash their hardline Islamist ideology in the country, After Hasina’s exit, they resorted to just that. However, saying that the whole violence was solely targeted against Hindus would be wrong. Mashrafe Mortaja, former Bangladesh captain (a great one indeed) and Awami League MP saw his house set on fire, several other AL leaders and their properties were attacked, and police stations were burnt. A majority of the attacks actually targeted the Muslims only.

It is also pertinent to note that the majority of Hindus in Bangladesh were AL supporters so again they would have become easy targets of the radical opposition. But, none of this can justify any sort of violence against the Hindus or any other community. It is the responsibility of every country to defend and fully protect their minorities and they should hang their heads in shame if they fail to do that (I hope some people back home too get this message). Though we saw visuals, where Muslim groups came forward to safeguard Hindus and their temples, underscoring the idea the country is built on, the very fact they had to do that shows something concerning.

Now, one more thing I would like to point out is the Hindu population in Bangladesh which stood at over 22% after the 1947 partition now stands at a mere 8%. Also, the number had already come down to 13% in 1971 (when Bangladesh was formed), so the number has fallen even after the formation of Bangladesh, and many fear can fall even further if the radical tendencies continue in Dhaka.

Nobel Laureate Economist Muhammad Yunus took over as chief advisor of the interim government in Bangladesh (Photo: CNN)

Muhammad Yunus and way ahead for Bangladesh

Muhammad Yunus, Nobel Peace Prize winner and a celebrated economist gave the concept of microfinance with his Grameen Bank. The pioneering concept where small loans were provided to poor women to start businesses at low interest rates turned into a major success, lifted millions out of poverty and earned Yunus the title of ‘Banker of the Poor’.

But, with time, his shine waned under corruption allegations. The charges all came under the Hasina regime and since Yunus was a critic of hers, it is alleged that most of the charges were ‘politically motivated.’ Hasina had even accused Yunus of “sucking blood” from the poor. Now, you may or may not like someone but one can’t just justify filing 170 cases against a Nobel Laureate economist just because he is your critic. In January this year, the court even sentenced Yunus to a sixth-month jail for allegedly violating labour laws by not creating a workers’ welfare fund.

Fast forward to eight months, Muhammad Yunus took oath as chief advisor to the interim government in Bangladesh (post equivalent to interim PM) just after Hasina’s ouster. As the military took control and held discussions with the protestors, the one name the whole student group wanted as their leader was Muhammad Yunus. Yunus, after taking over, has called for unity, pluralism and an end to attacks against minorities. The fact that many student leaders too, have stressed ‘unity’ and voiced against ‘fascist’ forces becoming part of the interim government, is a positive sign for a country that has a huge mountain to climb against unrest and economic challenges.

It’s quite clear that even though, the idea on which Bangladesh was formed was secular, compassionate and ‘Bengali’, the radical Islamist ideology (which birthed Pakistan) also holds a substantial place in the country and continues to cast a shadow. Especially, Jamaat, which was banned in the country, is extremely radical, irrespective of some reassuring statements they might make today. BNP, though not that radical has been close to Jamaat and the two have even run governments together and might do so again in future.

So, now it is the responsibility of the student protestors who dethroned authoritarian Hasina, and of course, Yunus who is heading the government to make sure that it is the ‘Idea of Bangladesh’, that prevails both in the government as well as in the public discourse. Without that, all these efforts would be of no use and would only push Bangladesh towards instability (we already have many neighbours on that list). It was a people’s movement in Bangladesh which formed the nation in 1971, it’s a people’s movement that has wrested power now in 2024 and it’s the people of ‘Amar Sonar Bangla’ that hold the future of the great nation in their hands.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoyed warm ties with Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina (Photo: Awaz The Voice)

The ‘US-Hand’ Angle

Coming to the million-dollar question, was the United States behind Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. Now, narrative-wise, it is easy to give that angle. After all, how can such a huge mobilisation and movement be carried out without a big power being involved? The US was upset with Bangladesh for much long, questioning its electoral process and human rights record. Hasina had rebuked Washington quite a few times and alleged that the US was funding her opposition parties. A shocking claim by Mrs Hasina was that some powers want to carve out a ‘Christian country’ from Bangladesh. Even after being deposed, she claimed she had stayed in power, had she given her island for a US military base.

Now, despite how much these espionage scripts sound interesting, these are nothing more than conspiracy theories. After all, what exact incentive will the US draw by overthrowing a big leader in Bangladesh? If it starts overthrowing governments that don’t allow military bases, maybe half of the world’s governments will have to be toppled. And, if the US really could topple governments this easily, why did it fail to do so in Cuba and Venezuela, geographically closer than Bangladesh? The Biden administration, whose own future is uncertain will try a regime change that far seems highly unlikely. It’s better if we keep the conspiracy theories aside and accept that Hasina’s regime had become extremely unpopular and her ‘sham’ elections made the pressure burst out in the form of a major movement, and she underestimated it badly.

Way Ahead for India’s Neighbourhood Policy

The much important question now remains, what should be India’s policy towards Bangladesh now, especially when Sheikh Hasina — the enemy of Dhaka — is in India. Firstly, we have to keep in mind that India has a lot at stake in Bangladesh, and it will have to value its strategic investment in Bangladesh and its people, more than Sheikh Hasina. It is important to engage with the current set-up and try to safeguard India’s interests and the minority Hindu population there. So far, I would say, the Indian government has done pretty fine, in engaging with the Yunus-led government.

Now, on the rhetorical level, India needs to do two things. Firstly, it will have to give up its obsession with the 1971 episode. The war holds little relevance today and those who relate to it even in Bangladesh, are way less. The majority of the population, especially youth, doesn’t relate to it much and is more concerned about today’s issues. This is the same mistake Hasina made, but India should refrain from doing so. Secondly, the political rhetoric in India needs reckoning, using Bangladeshi infiltrators as a slur, and exaggerating the condition of minorities there won’t help New Delhi rebuild ties with the new dispensation in Dhaka. Also, I genuinely believe, the sympathy for Sheikh Hasina in India is may more than what the authoritarian lady deserves. It is important to look into the whole story rather than just getting driven away with one narrative. India underestimated the sentiment in Bangladesh, and it should be wary of repeating the mistake.

Another pertinent point for India to ponder is…Sheikh Hasina. What to do with her? How long should she be allowed here? And should she be extradited? Well, despite how unpopular Hasina currently is in Bangladesh and despite all the mistakes she made, India should and will not extradite her or pressurise her to leave. She has been a partner of New Delhi for much longer, and abandoning her just like that will present India as an opportunist power. India didn’t take the easy route of abandoning Dalai Lama in 1959, it won’t take it now. Hasina, meanwhile, is seeking asylum in UK and if not, she might try UAE.

Also, the situation presents a regional challenge for India, with almost all the neighbours being extremely unstable. China – enemy, Bangladesh -unstable, Maldives – unstable, Sri Lanka – unstable, Nepal – extremely unstable, Myanmar – extremely unstable, Bhutan – manageable but very timid and Pakistan – well let’s not go there. So, the situation demands a more calibrated approach from India, especially at a time when Beijing too is trying to keep all these countries in its fold. But, we should keep in mind, that when Muizzu came to power, relations with Maldives seemed doomed, but slowly, India has been able to manage the situation smartly, and our ties have bettered. Similarly, a smart piece of engagement and diplomacy can also rebuild and restructure New Delhi’s long-standing ties with Dhaka.