One should never take the electorate for granted, irrespective of how much muscle and money power one accumulates, it takes the power of one finger to put a stop to any force. This is exactly what happened on June 4, when the whole country was taken aback to see the election results giving a picture very different from what the expectations after the last two general elections had set, and completely different from what the pollsters had predicted two days back.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, which had seemed like an ‘unstoppable force’ under the leadership of charismatic Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had perhaps met an ‘immovable object’ this time…’ We, the people of India’. While throughout the campaigning, it kept claiming to get 400 seats (400 paar), the party was reduced to below the 250 mark for the first time under Modi’s leadership.

The Major Factors Behind the Result

Now, it is very difficult to sit in your bedroom and point out all the reasons that defined the election results, but we can surely analyse some of them. Firstly, Hindutva politics has its warranty period, it can’t solely be the guiding light of your success. At a time when the whole country is battered by a cost of living crisis with massive price rises and unemployment (so much so that you have to send people to work as labourers in war-hit Israel), you can’t be expecting people to vote for you just because of a temple.

Also, the continuous rise in brazen authoritarianism somewhere, made people really sceptic that if BJP actually gets 400 seats, it might do something very ‘mischievous’. The ‘400 paar’ slogan itself showed massive complacency on the BJP’s side, further relaxing its local units.

Most importantly, issues like electoral bonds, bringing down governments with ‘Operation Lotus’ and inducting leaders with corruption allegations into the party, all these did hurt the BJP’s perception among the common people, which had seen a messiah in Mr Modi a decade back. The rise of independent media and the slump in the credibility of mainstream media further lead to real issues reaching the people. Terms like ‘Washing Machine’ becoming so popular among common people show how big a damage it was for BJP.

Perhaps, BJP too had felt somewhere that it was not getting the huge support it was anticipating, because of which Modi himself took an aggressive tone all of a sudden in the middle of a campaign, reaching his comfort zone of dog whistles and polarising hate speeches.

Despite the temple push, BJP received a drubbing in the Faizabad constituency which includes Ayodhya (Photo: India Today)

The UP Surprise and Ayodhya ‘Upset’

As the parties were heading into the polls, and people were analysing how BJP fared in the respective states, one state hardly anyone was in doubt of was Uttar Pradesh. Winning 73 and 62 seats in the 2014 and 2019 general elections and with the immense rise in the popularity of Yogi Adityanath as the Chief Minister (though not for the good), no one thought that BJP would go anywhere down 60 (some even predicted 70+).

However, when the results came out, it was Uttar Pradesh that threw up the most surprising results. Samajwadi Party was leading with 37 seats and even Congress, which many had already written obituaries of especially in UP, too won 6 seats (out of 17 it contested). On the other hand, the BJP, which seemed unbeatable a few months before, was struggling at 33 seats. Forget that, even Prime Minister Modi was trailing on his Varanasi seat for around three hours and eventually won it by 1.5 lakh votes, which is over 3 lakh less than his previous margin (second lowest victory margin for any PM ever).

The most ‘pleasant’ result, however, came in Amethi, where Smriti Irani, whose life’s only achievement was defeating Rahul Gandhi lost even that seat. It was a much-needed full-stop to her arrogant and mannerless politics. Since Irani had attacked Sonia Gandhi in Parliament, it is said Priyanka Gandhi had vowed to defeat her from the seat, that too by using a Gandhi Family pawn.

Now, if one looks into the reasons behind the result, first and foremost BJP was overconfident. It was riding so high on PM Modi’s name, that it completely failed to see the writing on the wall that there was such a huge unrest against the party in the state, that too just 2 years after it won a landslide victory in UP assembly polls. Secondly, there was massive infighting in the party, with the central command (Modi-Shah effectively) and state unit (Yogi) being at odds on several fronts including ticket distribution and alliances. Now, these are the reasons one would see on why BJP faltered, but that doesn’t effectively guarantee people voting for Congress and SP. So, the third and strongest reason here was the Opposition’s narrative that the BJP “will change constitution” and “will end reservation” did gain traction, especially among the Dalit voters. As a result, many BSP voters too shifted towards the INDIA bloc.

Now, those saying BJP never actually said this and this was a “false narrative” from the opposition, the counter can be two-fold. Firstly, it’s not as if anything the opposition says, people will take on a war footing, it was the systematic authoritarian rule of BJP, the destruction of institutions, the jailing of elected CMs and even that ‘400 paar’ slogan, that really left people sceptic of party’s intention. Secondly, those claiming the so-called false narrative of opposition should also look at the completely rubbish and absurd allegations of BJP and PM Modi himself that Congress will “take your mangalsutra, buffalo” and “will demolish Ram Mandir to create Babri Masjid.”

Now, coming to the Faizabad constituency (which includes Ayodhya) where BJP received a drubbing, that it will remember for its lifetime. Now, every result has its own reason and local factors, but this result, in particular, felt like a ‘Divine Justice’. Those spreading hate, and abusing minorities all in the name of Lord Ram, perhaps received the ‘Ram Baan’ in the ‘naabhi’ from the Lord himself, stating “not in my name.” Although this doesn’t mean that Hindutva politics will end or the BJP will become any secular stopping hate politics, the Ayodhya result will be etched in history for many reasons. Jai Shri Ram!

BJP’s foray into South

All through the campaign, the BJP was claiming that it would make huge inroads in the South this time. Though it didn’t pull off that big a stunner, it did make certain noticeable gains as compared to its previous outings.

The party created history in Kerala, winning a Lok Sabha seat for the first time with Suresh Gopi winning Thrissur. However, one should be vary of considering it a turning point for the BJP in the state. Gopi, a popular actor and philanthropist, is considered to have mainly won because of his popularity rather than the BJP symbol. Also, in the past, he has been associated with the Left, so his ideological commitments can’t be taken for granted.

In Tamil Nadu, where the BJP and the PM himself spent a lot of effort and time, many were anticipating a major rise under state party chief and former IPS officer Annamalai, but it failed to win any seat despite a noticeable rise in the vote share. The fact Annamalai came second in Coimbatore, pushing AIADMK, whose stronghold was this seat, on third, can be held as the party’s achievement.

In Karnataka, though BJP’s number came down to 17 from a sweep last time (it won 25), it is still much ahead of Congress, the ruling party in the state which won 9. In Telangana, BJP showed a massive rise to 8 seats just equal to Congress, again the ruling party in the state. This came mainly on the loss of BRS, a party which held the state till 6 months back and drew a blank here. It also won seats in Andhra Pradesh (both in LS and assembly polls), but I won’t consider it much of BJP’s inroad as of such, because almost all the seats here came ONLY because of its alliance with the TDP.

Despite Arvind Kejriwal coming out of jail, AAP couldn’t make much of a mark in the elections (Photo: Mint)

The Delhi Shocker

Though it was not that big a shocker if you look at BJP’s record of sweeping Delhi in 2014 and 2019, still Arvind Kejriwal coming out of jail, right at the peak of campaigning had raised expectations of the INDIA bloc winning at least 2-3 seats here. But, once again the BJP ended up sweeping the UT with a comprehensive vote share. Why the results were shocking is that the people of Delhi voted for the very same party which has jailed their own Chief Minister. It shows that there is not that big a sympathy wave for Kejriwal after his arrest. Secondly, his ‘honest’ image has been dented to some extent (if not a bigger extent) amid a plethora of corruption allegations.

On the other hand, the repeated failure of the Aam Aadmi Party in Lok Sabha has also raised several questions about its pan-India ambitions and prospects. Mr Kejriwal and his team will need to seriously introspect, where are they lagging behind. Mr Kejriwal has massive potential and has put BJP on the backfoot multiple times with his oratory skills and shrewd style, but the results have shown they have a huge gap to fill. With assembly polls in Haryana and then AAP’s fortress Delhi, followed by Punjab, the other state it has (also where it won only 3 this time) coming one after the other, the party has a mountain to climb.

However, on a lighter note, some experts have pointed out that even Kejriwal’s brief 21-day release did have one moment which according to them, played a big role in the results, especially in UP. They are of the opinion, that Kejriwal’s claims that the BJP will remove Yogi Adityananth as CM within 2 months of coming back to power (and BJP not countering it formally), did move away many Yogi supporters against BJP in the polls to keep their ‘beloved’ CM safe. If his remarks actually played a role, then the cameo was worth it.

BJP’s strong upheaval in Odisha

Odisha, a state where Naveen Patnaik was serving as the Chief Minister for over two decades, witnessed a historical performance from the BJP. It went on to sweep the state winning 20 out of the 21 seats, while Patnaik’s BJD drew a blank. BJP even won the assembly polls there, uprooting BJD’s 24-year rule in the state and stopping Patnaik from breaking a historic record (longest serving CM – Pawan Chamling 24 years). At a time, when BJP won 240 seats, these 20 seats were perhaps just the difference, which at least allowed NDA to cross the majority mark. Or else, you never know.

Narendra Modi went to meditate in Kanyakumari at the end of Lok Sabha elections (Photo: Tribune India)

Other states at a glance

While most people are talking only about Uttar Pradesh, the BJP also received massive setbacks in Maharashtra and West Bengal. Maharashtra, a state that witnessed a massive scale of political upheavals in the last 5 years, under 2 governments, 3 chief ministers and 4 deputy chief ministers, followed by the breaking up of two big parties, presented a huge turnaround of sorts. BJP, which had orchestrated the breaking up of NCP and Shiv Sena (with real party names unfairly going to the other side) was reduced to just 9 seats, while its allies could also only manage 8 seats among themselves. Congress surprisingly emerged as the largest party with 13 seats and both ‘unreal’ Shiv Sena and NCP which are in the INDIA bloc performed better than the ‘real’ ones who are with NDA.

In West Bengal too, the BJP was looking for strong growth after taking the state by storm last time and emerging as the main opposition party to Mamata Banerjee’s TMC. But, again it received a massive drubbing, falling from 18 to 12 seats. TMC managed to hold onto its fortress and, despite the infamous Sandeshkhali episode, won 29 seats in the state. Here too, the BJP suffered because of infighting within the state units, especially after the arrival of Suvendu Adhikari, who is not much liked by older leaders in the BJP such as Dilip Ghosh and Sukanta Majumdar.

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat (of course) were among those states, where BJP swept or almost swept at ease, eventually helping it to reach 240. Gujarat has been a BJP fortress for long and Madhya Pradesh too has emerged as one, as the party’s rule in the state has already crossed two decades (if we remove the brief Kamal Nath term in between).

Haryana was another state where the BJP received a strong setback coming down to 5 out of 10 seats. Anti-incumbency of 10-year BJP rule, and the massive unpopularity of local leadership and farmer protests completely damaged the party’s prospects in the state. BJP’s performance dipped a little (though were still good enough) in Assam and Jharkhand; the former witnessed a historic win for Gaurav Gogoi from Jorhat and the latter saw strong resentment against BJP, especially in tribal seats because of Hemant Soren’s arrest.

Notably, Manipur and Ladakh were two states (if you consider the latter as a state too), where there was unprecedented resentment against BJP; Manipur has been witnessing ethnic clashes for over a year, while Ladak is undergoing strong protests demanding statehood and other rights. BJP drew a blank in both states, however, the states had two and one seats respectively, meaning BJP didn’t sustain very big damage. If these had been bigger states, you can just imagine the damage it would have inflicted on the saffron party.

Another pertinent point, not many pointed out was BJP did not even contest from Kashmir this time (though it won both seats in Jammu). Whether you like BJP or not, you can’t ignore that it is a massively competitive bloke, which fights till the last mile and with full might. So, not contesting any of the three seats in Kashmir was indeed a big surprise. The only reason I can figure out is the party was expecting massive resentment that it might have even lost its deposits.

The results have shown that Rahul Gandhi has been able to change his perception to quite an extent with the foot marches (Photo: Business Today)

What the results mean for Congress and Rahul Gandhi

There is not an iota of doubt that these results have given a new resurgence for the grand old party. Now, there will be many so-called experts who will somehow say that it’s nothing big for Congress, but they are either misleading or mistaken. Yes, it has only reached 99 seats, but it’s still a big achievement from the 44 and 52 seats it won in the last two elections and an even bigger comeback from a point where it was almost made to look ‘irrelevant’ in national politics.

Rahul Gandhi, himself made a huge turnaround in his personality with two foot marches in the country.  The Bharat Jodo Yatra followed by ‘Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra’ has massively helped Rahul in changing his perception from a ‘part-time politician’ (as he was labelled) to a more grounded leader. Now, the marches didn’t create a revolution as such, but it has made people look up to Rahul as a ‘serious’ contender. Additionally, it has also helped BJP  The fact that number of people who want to see Rahul as PM is 27% against Mr Modi’s 41%, and this number has remained near the same for over a decade, is an impressive feat for any leader.

But, if someone asks me if the job is done. Hell No! It is just a small step in the right direction for the grand old party. After losing all relevance and reaching a new low in terms of morale, the party has kind of risen again. These two yatras followed by this electoral performance, have also energised its cadre. Now, I have already clarified in the past, that I am NOT a fan of the Congress party, but that doesn’t mean that I will wish for an ‘Opposition-mukt’ Bharat as it is being perceived by the ruling party. If Congress has to remain alive for the Opposition to remain at least existent, then so be it. As political commentator and leader Yogendra Yadav pointed out, the effort it took for Congress to reach 99 from 52, the same force can also take it to 250 if it sticks on the right path.

But, this would require Congress to not get complacent, which it has the habit of getting very easily. It needs to remain on the ground with full force, carrying all of people’s daily bread and butter issues like price rise, unemployment and of course authoritarianism (old habits won’t die that hard). Secondly, it should try to bring out a few more yatras, especially focussing on the Hindi heartland (the region where it still needs to improve). Finally, Rahul Gandhi needs to give up his ‘back-seat driving’ hobby and take up the position of Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha. It would finally be the first proper responsibility from his side and there can’t be a better time for it than now.

The Future of Hindutva Politics

As I also mentioned above, if anyone is daydreaming that finally “hate and arrogance” is defeated and Hindutva will reach its end, he/she is mistaken. Yes, the election results have shown that Hindutva is not the sole factor that can ride you across the line every election. The results have also shown that a huge number of Indians primarily Hindus, have got tired of BJP’s ‘hate mongering’. Prime Minister Modi himself taking the ugly route with his disgusting dog whistles against the Muslims, has even irked many of the neutral Hindu voters. It was another divine justice that the BJP also lost the Banswara constituency, where Mr Modi made the hate-filled comments.

Another important aspect of this result will lie in PM Modi’s image. While his aura had won BJP two elections with landslide margins, perhaps the most Modi-centric election (everything from manifesto to rhetoric to campaign was ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’) saw a very different result. Though it doesn’t necessarily mean that Modi (the man, the myth, the legend) is finished, it has definitely shown the drawback of relying completely on one man. One can easily see, weak faces being appointed everywhere in BJP from the party president, and other party positions to the newly elected Chief Minister, just to keep the power centralised in the chambers of Modi and Shah. Somehow, it has started showing the limitations of such a style.

Another interesting takeaway that has emerged post the elections is the BJP and RSS coming at odds with each other. RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat recently made some cryptic comments against the BJP, saying “True sevak is never arrogant…one should not consider opposition as the enemy.” Another senior RSS leader Indresh Kumar was more direct, “Those who became arrogant were stopped at 240 by Lord Ram”, adding that “those who were anti-Ram (referring to INDIA bloc) couldn’t even cross 237.” The RSS even criticised BJP’s alliance with Shiv Sena and NCP in Maharashtra.

Prior to this, JP Nadda, during the campaigning had told a newspaper that “now BJP has Narendra Modi” and it “doesn’t need RSS to win elections.” All this has straightaway shown the discomfort between the top leaderships of BJP and RSS, the latter especially is finding itself more and more isolated and ignored with almost the whole power lying in the hands of two men. Now, I don’t have even a drop of sympathy for RSS, but the tussle is for everyone to see.

Narendra Modi will be heading a ‘NDA’ government with heavy reliance on alliance partners (Photo: India Today)

The Modi Cabinet 3.0 and Alliance Challenges

After much deliberations, the third cabinet of PM Modi was sworn in with Mr Modi taking oath as Prime Minister for the record third consecutive time (only second Indian PM after Pandit Nehru to achieve this feat). It was being speculated that BJP’s main allies TDP and JDU would eat up the lion’s share of minisites including some crucial ones like Railways and Infrastructure, the cabinet still looked quite Modi’s cabinet, with BJP retaining almost everything it wanted. Also, by showing full continuity, the BJP has tried to exude that it is very much in control of the alliance.

In my opinion, there will be no major change in BJP’s general working; its economic, defence and foreign policy (most importantly). It will be the BJP, which will be calling the shots and with firm control. Both TDP and JDU will most likely be compensated with assistance in their respective states. Both parties also know the benefit they can reap in a BJP-led Centre is much greater than what they will get in a more scattered INDIA bloc (more regional parties including competitive ones).

However, the problem will come in the more ideological plans of the BJP. Uniform Civil Code, One Nation One Election, delimitation exercise all these are completely doomed. You might not even hear about them in the next five years. TDP which promised reservation to Muslims in Andhra Pradesh, and even JDU which has often refrained from any communal idea and even conducted caste census will never encourage ‘anti-Muslim’ rhetoric playing out. The brazen arrests of elected CMs, attack against federalism and misuse of Raj Bhavan (Governors sitting on important bills) too might make regional allies uncomfortable.

So, will the government last its full term, will Mr Modi himself complete 5 years as PM and will he be a weaker PM this time? The answer to all these questions lies in the grave of time. In politics, one should never say never. INDIA bloc, though, should not hurry to do any ‘jod tod’ to form government and should keep playing the role of opposition with full force. Let’s see how the upcoming assembly elections fare up. With BJP on the backfoot in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand (to a certain extent) and interesting contests awaiting in Delhi and then in Bihar, Indian politics is certainly up for interesting times.

The Way Forward in Indian Politics

I said how important it is to have a strong opposition. So, as the 18th Lok Sabha comes into force this time, it will have a stronger opposition to keep the necessary checks and balances. So, the government, which in its previous term, suspended 146 MPs and passed important bills under the guise, might not be as ruthless as before and will be forced to answer a few more questions this time. With both Ayodhya and Article 370 missions completed, the saffron party might also find it hard to flare up polarising issues.

Author Chetan Bhagat rightly pointed out, that India can never become like Russia and China because democracy is in our blood. The Indian electorate rose up to the occasion and curtailed the power, it itself gave to the BJP. The results coming when the government had total control over institutions, media and funding, will go down as one of the great chapters in India’s democratic story. Also, there is a big lesson for the BJP to mend its ways, keep the hate politics aside and focus on several of the good works it has done (I have explained multiple times). And those ‘andh-bhakt’ BJP supporters who are still busy blaming people for not voting for the BJP, even saying “Gaddar apne hi nikle” kind of illiterate statements, are making the very same mistake, the BJP made in these elections. This election has also reaffirmed the faith in the country’s democracy at a time when everything was up against the wall. Long Live Democracy!

JAI HIND