Businessman, with a huge empire and controversial past, enters politics, springs a surprise in 2016 by winning White House. The tenure is marked by controversies, impeached twice, voted out in 2020, creates chaos after crying foul, position weakened within the party, gets smothered under dozens of criminal cases (most of them were righteous though). Cut to 2024, the man defeats all odds to pull off a historic win in the US Presidential Elections and will create multiple records when he takes over the White House two months later, in what would be a legacy-defining tenure for the deeply polarising leader. This is the story of Donald Trump and in this Blog, I will decode the US elections and the fall and rise of Donald Trump and his ‘Trumpian’ ideology.
How the Biden Presidency panned out
The presidency of Joe Biden started right against the backdrop of Covid, the very pandemic, that also played a decisive part in Trump’s loss in 2020. The economy was struggling, and people were marred by the rising cost of living. In response, the Biden administration did come up with certain measures. Firstly, the cash transfers, health insurance benefits, and salary increases helped combat the situation. For instance, the number of jobs, people insured, and salary rise under Biden is not just better than Trump, but also better than many other recent US Presidents.
But, at the same time, all the rise in economic benefits was combined with a similar rise in inflation, eventually nullifying the impact of the policies. As a result, despite the Biden administration having a decent economic record; for the people, the situation always remained strenuous.
And all of this was combined with the massive influx of illegal migrants into the country from the southern border, an issue Trump and the Republicans heavily banked on to target the Biden administration. However, even the numbers show that Biden performed very poorly on this front, as the migrant influx in the US under him is much higher than that of any of his recent predecessors. So, as Trump portrayed the migrants as the ‘villains’ blaming them for all the problems faced; unemployment, crimes and yes, “eating of pets,” the public, already marred by tough conditions, perhaps just found their ‘villain.’ Reports show that failure to curb illegal migration turned out to be a decisive factor behind Democrat’s loss.
This bitter-sweet domestic performance was combined with a major failure on the external front. Months into the Biden administration saw the US’ ‘shambolic’ exit from Afghanistan. Before Washington could have recovered from a global embarrassment, Russia — riding on the confidence of a weaker US — launched the invasion of Ukraine, a war Kyiv has been able to sustain till now only because of US’ support. Neither did the US let Ukraine agree to a ceasefire when it could have been (around May 2022), nor did it make any move towards an agreement, leading to the war dragging on for close to 3 years.
If the conflict in Europe wasn’t enough, another one blew up in West Asia, as Hamas launched the horrendous October 7 terror attack against Israel, which was followed by the even more brutal Israeli offensive in Gaza, a killing spree which has left over 45,000 Palestinians dead. Biden administration’s outright support to Israel, not just infuriated the Arab and Muslim population in the US, but his shallow calls for restraint to Israel also outraged the Netanyahu government and his powerful Jewish lobby here, eventually leading to a whammy from both sides and a complete mess for Biden’s legacy.
Trump rode on this very sentiment, portraying that Washington has lost the stature, that it once had. He not only claimed that the two conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza hadn’t even started had he been in office, but also vowed to end both of them soon after taking office (he even said “one day”). Now, this foreign policy doesn’t necessarily drive the whole voter sentiment, but the sentiment of ‘national pride’ always boosts the advantageous campaign, which in this case, was the Republicans.
Donald Trump became the first convicted felon to become the US President (Photo: Brookings Institution)
Trump, Criminal Cases and Indictment
Right since his ouster, Donald Trump has remained the controversy’s favourite child. From the January 6 Capitol Riots — very well incited by the President-elect — to not even formally transferring power to Biden (like a civilized leader), Trump always tried to show himself, that he just doesn’t believe in the system.
There are four major criminal cases against Trump, and at least 90 felony charges. The first and foremost case is that of election subversion. It is a known fact that Trump refused to accept the results of the 2020 presidential elections, and he continues to claim that the polls were “robbed.” There are multiple pieces of evidence that on the counting day, Trump allegedly tried to pressurise officials to somehow change the poll results, a charge even several of Trump’s ex-loyalists have confirmed. The other case is related to the event that succeeded the 2020 polls, the Capitol Riots. As is evident, a huge mob of Trump supporters broke into the US Capitol. President-elect Trump is accused of ‘inciting’ the mob (a charge which very much is true).
The third case against Trump is the ‘classified documents’ case. A President swipes through a plethora of documents, and can also take them at his private residence, as per the need. However, once he exits office, it’s his responsibility to return the documents to the White House. Now, what Trump did, he was so charged up and adamant about accepting the results, he kept several ‘classified’ documents at his private Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.
The fourth case against him is of ‘falsifying business records’ popularly called the ‘hush money case’, a case in which the President-elect is already ‘convicted’. Trump, had an affair with porn star, Stormy Daniels and to hide his illicit relationship in the runup to 2016 polls, he paid $130,000 of hush money to her through his lawyer Michael Cohen. But, what Trump also did wickedly is to mark this as a ‘legal expense’ in his accounts, which is a crime for which he was convicted in May this year. But, a prison sentence in the case is unlikely considering Trump’s age and the crime having the maximum sentence of only four years. But, what the episode indeed ensured was Trump becoming the first president in US history to have a criminal conviction.
However, while Trump’s image was being dented by this plethora of cases, a strange phenomenon was taking place on the sidelines. The whole chunk of Trump supporters completely resonated with their leader’s claims that these charges were “politically motivated” and he is being targeted because he wants to ‘Make America Great Again’. After one point, many experts believe that the intensity of multiple cases became so much, that it started appearing ‘political vendetta’ even to the neutral voters. This, many say, also played a substantial role in turning sentiments towards him.
Biden bows out, emerges Harris
Ever since he took office, things weren’t easy for Mr Biden. I already explained the domestic and global front, where he was failing. But, things started turning worse for him, as continuously struggled in his speeches and walks. Every other day, he would make a Jaffe or fall down while walking. Calling Zelenskyy as Putin and Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump” were only some of the abundant embarrassing moments Biden had in his presidency.
As the election year arrived, there were murmurs about whether Biden should be the Democratic nominee in the elections, but Biden refused to bow down. He strongly affirmed that he has defeated Trump once and can do it again this time. The party also, had no option but to stand by their president. In this excitement, Biden challenged Trump for a debate on CNN in June, which the latter accepted (usually debates happen after September). But, this was a blunder on Biden’s part, as he fumbled and zoned out extremely badly in the debate. It’s not that Trump was good (he just said rhetorical and unverified claims), but his challenger was struggling so badly, that Trump seemed the winner.
This set off the panic button for the Democrats, as they were sure that they couldn’t win the race with Biden as their face. It set the balls rolling, as senior leaders to fundraisers and even celebrities started convincing Biden to bow out. Reports say, the Democrat funds also started drying up. Actor and Democrat supporter, George Clooney wrote a long op-ed thanking Biden for his job, but requested him to make way for someone else citing concerns over his age.
“We are not going to win in November with this president,” he wrote. Clooney added that he considers Biden “a friend” and that this is “about age. Nothing more. But also nothing that can be reversed.”
Even Barack Obama, who supported Biden after terrible debate performance, privately told him to bow out of the race. Eventually, on July 21, 2024, Joe Biden announced that he is dropping out of the race.
“While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down,” he said in a long statement. Thanking his deputy Kamala Harris for “being an extraordinary partner,” he endorsed the Vice President to replace him in the contest for the top job.
This turned out to be a much-needed boost for the Democrats. Their coffers started filling up, cadre got energised and even the polls started showing a neck-to-neck fight in what appeared a one-way traffic a few weeks back. Then came the time for the next debate, this time at ABC News. Excitement was high for this one, and Kamala Harris came rather ‘out of syllabus’ for Trump, as he was just not expecting such a strong performance. While Trump continued with his rhetorical and unverified claims, Harris, with her calm remarks and sharp replies, was able to get under his skin. The debate again energised the Democrat camp, so much so, that Trump didn’t even accept the challenge for any more debate.
But, I pointed out then, and I am saying it now, Kamala Harris was never a strong candidate. For instance, she lost very early in the 2020 primary race, which shows she wasn’t even a tall figure within her party. She became the nominee just because she was the Vice President. Also, the polls showing a tight race was most certainly due to the spike in enthusiasm among Democrat supporters.
A close shot of Donald Trump after escaping death just by a whisker (Photo: The Dispatch)
Donald ‘Trumps’ Death: Tale of two Assassination Attempts
July 13, 2024. The election campaign was in an intense phase, as part of which Trump was addressing a huge rally in Buttler, Pennsylvania. While Trump was speaking in his usual flow, suddenly a sharp bullet brushed past his ears, leaving him down with blood coming all over his face. The attacker didn’t stop there but fired a total of 8 bullets killing one attendee and critically injuring 2 others. Meanwhile, the security staff escorted Trump, but not before the then-presumptive presidential nominee raised his fist with full valour, an image, that would go on to define his presidential campaign.
Now, as everyone would have guessed I am NOT a Trump Fan, but you can’t deny that not many leaders in the world would have had this courage and mental stiffness to raise their fists as a fighter in such a sensitive moment after just escaping death by a whisker. And as things turned out, this turned out to be the penultimate moment of the campaign. As Trump portrayed himself as the victim being prevented from his MAGA mission, the whole sympathy wave shifted towards him.
The second assassination attempt was foiled in September when a man with a rifle was arrested just 500 yards from the spot where Trump was golfing in his Florida resort. The man identified as Ryan Wesley Routh was arrested when he attempted to flee.
Key Issues in Polls
Donald Trump banked his campaign on reducing inflation and bringing respite to the people. He vowed huge tax cuts for big businesses (usually considered Republican-leaning) and in a radical move, promised to increase the drilling of oil. It’s evident that Trump is a climate hawk, and might even pull the US out of the Paris Climate Pact, like he did last time. His emphasis on increasing oil drilling, and lack of interest towards electric vehicle companies has already raised concerns among environmentalists. Rest, I already explained how Trump strongly vowed to restore US’ lost stature and MAGA. Illegal infiltration in the country, especially from the southern border was another prominent issue, strongly emphasised by Trump. He has actually promised to carry out the “largest deportation exercise in the history of America”.
The Democrats tried to counter Trump and his radial plans through issues like ‘American values,’ democratic freedom’ and women’s rights. The last one was a special part of Kamala Harris’ campaign, which also tried to bank on the issue of sensitive issue of abortion rights. However, Harris and the Democrats failed to rally behind as much support, as much as they were expecting.
Decoding the magnitude of Trump’s win
Even just hours before the election results, the polls were showing a close fight in the elections, with Harris having around a 2-point lead. But, after the final results, Donald Trump had registered a huge win grabbing a lion’s share of 312 out of the 538 electoral votes, against Kamala Harris’ 226. How big this victory was can be understood in multiple factors.
Firstly, Trump won all seven swing states (states that shift to either party unlike other traditional red or blue states). This was a huge setback for Harris, as the American elections are essentially decided in these states only, and Harris failed to win any. The results in Michigan (sizeable Muslim population and outrage over Biden’s outright support to Israel) and Pennsylvania (where Trump suffered the assassination attempt) just sealed the fate of this election.
Secondly, Trump ended up winning the popular vote as well, something he couldn’t do even in the 2016 election win and not in 2020. He won over 50% of votes against Harris’ 48.3% with a margin of over 2 million votes. Thirdly, usually, every community or section of society has their preferences; such as white males outrightly supporting Republicans, and females, blacks and educated youths going Democrat; but in a rather surprising trend, in each of these sections, the vote share for Republicans increased than before. This is not just a big win for Grand Old Party (GOP), but also a huge setback for Democrats, who find their loyal and trusted support base in the working class, shifting away from them. Also, the Republican vote share increased in each of the 50 US states, which is indeed a big feat.
Lastly and most importantly, the American pollsters have always failed to anticipate the number of ‘silent’ Trump supporters. For instance, in 2016, Hillary Clinton (a much stronger candidate than Harris) was predicted to win, but she lost despite getting more votes. In 2020, Trump was predicted to lose badly, though he lost, but the margin of loss was much closer than what was predicted. Similarly, this time around, every poll showed a slight edge to Harris, but Trump won it outrightly. So, this once again showed there lies a significant section of ‘silent’ Trump supporters who are undercounted by the pollsters.
Donald Trump turned out to be stronger against a woman candidate once again, also this time the election result was accepted graciously (Photo: Mint)
Stange Cabinet Picks and What to Expect from Trump 2.0
Ever since winning the elections, Donald Trump is making news almost every day with his strange and rather ‘controversial’ cabinet picks. His picks of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor, are very much aligned with his strong anti-China stand, and are being praised from all sides. But, some of these other choices are rather controversial. Fortunately, for India, they have also shown positive leaning towards bolstering ties with India and in the Indo-Pacific.
Pete Hegseth, the Fox News anchor-turned-politician and former war veteran, who has been picked as the Defence Secretary, allegedly paid hush money to a woman who accused him of sexual misconduct. Tulsi Gabbard was announced as the head of national intelligence. However, experts are sceptic of her considering she raised doubts on US intelligence agencies in the past. Matt Gaetz, the pick for attorney General is even controversial. The man who served as Trump’s own lawyer is accused of having sex with an underage girl. But, according to the latest news, Gaetz has withdrawn himself from consideration for the post.
However, nothing can match the mega-controversial pick of Robbert F Kennedy Junior — ex-President John F Kennedy’s nephew, who ran independent before suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump. Kennedy, a Covid vaccine sceptic has been picked as the Health Secretary. It’s like picking Brijbhushan Singh as Women and Child Development Minister. Now, as much as it sounds ironical, his criticism of processed foods has drawn praise from Trump, who wants him to ‘Make America Healthy Again’.
The other attraction of the Donald Trump cabinet was the announcement of ‘The Department of Government Efficiency’ (DOGE), which will be co-headed by billionaire Elon Musk and Indian-origin entrepreneur Vivek Ramasamy. The department won’t be a direct part of the cabinet, and its job will be to give suggestions to the Trump administration on reducing the ‘wasteful’ expenditure. As much as it sounds good, it is also controversial, as reports say, the Department of Education, which Trump and far-right have criticised for promoting “too liberal” values, might become the first victim of this DOGE. More than other cabinet positions, it would be extremely interesting to look at how this department functions, as it has two people with ambitions for the top job, heading it.
As the Trump 2.0 cabinet takes shape, we all should remember that Trump’s first term was just his arrival and it kind of just shook up the whole American system. His second term will indeed be defining his legacy, so Trump will be carrying out not a few but many radical and significant reforms, whose imprint will be etched for generations to come. From reforming education, and bureaucracy to even the country’s core ideology, several things are on cards for the Trump 2.0, and is America ready for it…well we are not sure.
Geopolitical Implications
These were all for the shuffling in domestic politics, Trump’s return is also expected to shake up the geopolitics, especially at this point, when the world is embroiled in two major conflicts. The President-elect has vowed to end the Russia-Ukraine war “in one day.” Several reports have said that he is keen to reach an agreement between Putin and Zelenskyy to close things up. What remains to be seen is how the negotiations go as Russia continues to hold around 20% of Ukraine’s territories.
The scenario in the other conflict in West Asia, however, might be different, where Trump can give an even freer hand to Benjamin Netanyahu to go after Hamas and ‘wrap things up’. Some experts also say that Trump might have better control over his brother-in-arm Netanyahu, and this might essentially lead to a ceasefire. But, any long-term solution or ‘two-state solution’ looks unlikely, looking at Trump’s outright support for Israel (he shifted the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem last time) and his radical cabinet picks.
Being a businessman, Trump even runs the country like a business and is not willing to accept anything less than a healthy profit. Trump’s return has sent the whole European brigade into a ‘trauma’ considering the statements the President-elect made over the years. He has been highly critical of the US’ pumping of money for Ukraine, NATO and other alliances. He clearly wants all allies to contribute equally or he might pull out of those alliances too. In a famous remark, Trump said he would let Putin bomb Europe “as much as he wants” if the European nations don’t pay up their share in security. Many experts are expecting some radical changes in America’s stand in its Europe policy.
As almost everyone is predicting, Trump will come out hard against China, the country he considers the US’ biggest adversary. Trump promised to impose a 10-20% tariff against all countries having a surplus against the US and a 60% tariff against China, the country with whom he started a massive trade war last time and wouldn’t hesitate to do something similar this time.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with US President and “friend” Donald Trump (Photo: The Atlantic)
Future of India-US ties and Modi-Trump camaraderie
Now, last but not least, as the world braces for a Trump 2.0, it’s also important for us to view the future of India-America ties. There has been two sides to Trump’s relationship with India. It is well evident that Trump and Modi enjoy great camaraderie, after all the latter was one of the first leaders to congratulate Trump and also only the third leader who received a call from Trump that day. So, one can expect things to remain smooth on this front. Also, the regular bickering by the US on ‘democratic values’ and ‘religious freedom’ that was a constant under the Biden administration might just be a thing of the past, as neither Trump gives a damn about those values nor he adhered to it himself.
But, here is another side of the story too, as the President-elect has been hawkish on India too when it comes to trade and tariffs. In his last term, he marred the India-US trade and also badly impacted the huge chunk of Indians wanting to enter the US through an H-1B visa. So, it’s not that Trump’s return might be only good news for India, as our trade (especially IT and pharma) might be hit and so can be the prospects of those seeking US visas. The experts, however, point out that Trump’s hawkish stand on China might also present India with the opportunity to somehow compensate, but only if New Delhi makes the right moves.
Now, even though I’m NOT a Trump fan, throughout I wanted him to win against Harris, for the sheer reason that a Trump presidency will make international politics very interesting, unlike Harris. And as a journalist, that’s what matters to me. It has to be seen how things actually pan out, once Trump takes office in January, but after multiple indictments, 2 impeachments and one controversial election loss, the Donald Trump phenomenon is set to take over the world…once again!
