It is more than 500 days since Russia launched its offensive against Ukraine. These days, many big developments have taken place on the battlefield; ranging from Russia’s embarrassing withdrawal from Kherson, the setback for Ukraine in Bakhmut, and the famous Wagner group mutiny. In the period of over one year, the West has increased its support towards Ukraine, however, Kyiv’s long-standing desire of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has remained unfulfilled. In this Blog, I would discuss all the major episodes that have taken place since the start of Putin’s invasion.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, few gave Ukraine any chance. It was anticipated that Kyiv would fall within a week or so. But, defying all expectations, Ukraine carried out an unbelievable counter-offensive. The biggest factor that played out was while Russian troops were fighting just for Putin’s ambition, the Ukrainian troops were defending their land in a ‘now or never’ battle. So, David did pretty much rise against the Goliath. However, it was not just Ukraine’s belief behind its fightback, but also a hell lot of assistance from the West.
Since, the start of the war, the US has committed nearly 40 billion USD as military assistance to Ukraine. However, as a matter of fact, this is just around 2% of the US Defence budget. Some of the major advanced weapons given by the US are Patriot air defence system, Stinger air defence weapons and top-tier battle tanks as well as the anti-tank systems. So, the US has got to a point now, where it wants to economically drench Moscow — it is not a big economic power anyways — to such an extent that Washington is able to get rid of its rival once and for all. Interestingly, both Russia and Ukraine have undergone a military overhaul.
Pulitzer Prize-winning photo showing Ukrainian soldiers carrying out a pregnant lady from war-torn region (Photo: CNN)
Russian humiliation in Kherson, comeback in Bakhmut
In the conflict, one of the most embarrassing episodes for Russia was its withdrawal from Kherson, a key Ukrainian city. After the start of the Russian offensive, Moscow made some really big and strategic gains including the huge city of Mariupol and also the control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant along the Dnipro River. However, in September 2022, Kyiv carried out an unbelievable counter-offensive in the south-Ukrainian city of Kherson. Making strong advances in the northeast, Ukraine recaptured significant territory in the Kharkiv region. As a surprising and strategic move, Ukraine cut off Russian supplies at Lyman city leaving Moscow pinned down. This was followed by Russia hastily withdrawing from the cities of Kherson, Mykolaiv and all cities to the west of the Dnipro River. By the end of 2022, Kyiv had recaptured around half of what it had lost since the start of the Russian invasion, and Moscow was reduced with control over just 14 per cent region in Ukraine.
In another turning point in the battle, Russia made a deadly fightback in the Bakhmut region. However, this region didn’t hold so much strategic prominence, but still, it was a major win for Moscow after the embarrassment of losing territories. The month-long siege was primarily carried out by the Russian mercenary group ‘Wagner Group’ (We will discuss it in detail later). It resulted in both Kyiv and Moscow suffering heavy casualties. However, despite Russian claims of capturing the city, Ukraine has maintained its stance that its troops are still fighting to reclaim the region.
The breach of the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River near Kherson was another major episode of the war. The breach led to heavy flooding in southwest Ukraine affecting over 80,000 people and damaging crops. This is significant with respect to the fact that Ukraine is one of the biggest food producers in the world. Now, both Russia and Ukraine blamed each other for the breach. While Kyiv accused Moscow of blowing up the dam to prevent an offensive, Moscow claimed that Ukraine blew up the dam to “deprive Crimea of water” and “divert attention”. It’s not easy to say who is true but what is certain is that the episode will adversely affect a large number of people.
On May 3, a drone attack took place on the Kremlin, which Moscow blamed on Kyiv as an “attempted attack” on Putin. Both the drones were shot down by Russian authorities and no one was injured. It was quite an interesting development as almost everybody knows that Putin doesn’t stay at Kremlin. And, experts doubt whether Ukraine actually has the advanced weaponry to infiltrate Russian surveillance and defence and carry out an attack so close to the Kremlin.
The Danger around Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant
Another focal point of the war has been the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Ever since it came under Russian control, experts have feared the risk of a nuclear catastrophe. In March, Russia and Ukraine both blamed each other for planning sabotage at the plant. Several reports of shelling near the plant have also raised global tensions. Recently, Zelenskyy claimed that Russia has placed explosive-like objects on the rooftops, however, experts have not found any evidence for this claim. However, experts believe that Russian threats — blowing up the plant to compel Kyiv to come on the discussion table — should not be taken lightly.
There are a total of six reactors, of which five are operating under a cold shutdown, which means the reactors are below the boiling point. While the sixth one is in hot shutdown mode to supply steam to the plant. However, it also means that the reactor is above-boiling point and highly pressurized, which increases the pertaining risks. In such cases, if any damage occurs, there lies a higher risk of the release of radioactive material from the plant.
Horrible and Graphic visuals from the Bucha massacre (Photo: CNN)
The ‘Butchering’ in Bucha
Rape, torture and brutal killings. That’s what transpired in the Ukrainian city of Butcha, the Russian military officials. It happened in March 2022, while Russia was trying to invade the city. According to local officials, at least 458 bodies were recovered, which included nine children. A majority of them were civilians and had marks of being killed by weapons. Some extremely heart-wrenching and disturbing photos that came out showed corpses with their hands tied at the back and shot at point-blank range.
As per some reports, a basement was used as a torture chamber. Several bodies were found mutilated and burnt. Minor girls were found raped by the Russian soldiers. Although, ultimately, Russian forces did withdraw from the city of Bucha, they had done enough butchering by then. While, Ukraine demanded International Criminal Court probe the matter, Moscow had the audacity to brush off the allegations instead accusing Ukraine of “staging killings” to gain sympathy. Well, Mr Putin…the blood on your hands will surely outweigh the greed in your heart, and of course hair on your head.
The Black Sea grain deal
Now, as the war continues to rattle Kyiv, we should also know that Ukraine happens to be one of the largest grain producers in the world — much of which is exported to developing countries under the UN Food for Work Programme (FWP). But, Russia’s full-scale invasion led to a blockade of the Black Sea, which halted shipping resulting in Ukraine’s exports dropping to one-sixth of its pre-war level. It also brought the future of poor recipient countries in jeopardy as global food prices shot up sharply.
In a bid to control the tensions, the Black Sea Grain Deal was signed. The initiative allowed 32.9 million metric tonnes of food to be exported from war-torn Ukraine since August. It was brokered between Russia and Ukraine by the United Nations and Turkey. Notably, how authoritarian and hardline Islamist Reccep Tayyip Erdogan is back at home, he holds a nice rapport with Putin despite being a NATO member. Under this deal, a safe corridor was created for Ukraine’s grain exports from three Ukrainian ports – Odesa, Yuzhny and Chornomorsk. Also, a team of Turkish, Ukrainian and UN staff monitored the loading of grain into vessels before navigating it through the Black Sea, which is heavily mined by Ukrainian and Russian forces. Finally, it led to a reduction in global wheat prices and seed the worldwide food crisis.
However, all this has come to a halt now, as President Putin announced on July 17 that Russia is withdrawing from the deal. Now, the reason pointed out by Putin is that his demands were not met and the West used the deal for “political blackmailing”. The reasons put forward by Kremlin are — Moscow wanted an end to sanctions on the Russian Agricultural Bank, it also wanted the resumption of supplies of agricultural machinery and parts, lifting restrictions on insurance and reinsurance, the resumption of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline and the unblocking of assets and the accounts of Russian companies involved in food and fertiliser exports. Putin has also said that he would ‘consider’ returning to the deal if his demands are met.
Now, if one looks at the repercussions of Moscow’s actions, it is going to be a very damaging affair. As part of this, there was an assurance from Russia’s side that the ships carrying grain through the Black Sea won’t be attacked. However, after Moscow’s withdrawal, there is such assurance. This will lead to a rise in insurance premiums for the ships in the Black Sea and leave the shipowners reluctant to even send their ships in a ‘war zone’. Without a doubt, its brunt will be borne the hardest by the poor and food-deficient countries. Well…as if Putin cares.
Yevgeny Priozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, famously called ‘Putin’s Chef’ (Photo: New York Times)
The Wagner Group Mutiny
‘Putin’s Chef’…yes that’s how Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group is popularly known. Actually, Prigozhin used to run a hot dog stall, upon the success of which, he opened a restaurant chain, where Putin — then as the Mayor of Mocow — used to eat. This was the start of a long friendship between Putin and Prigozhin. The latter’s closeness with the former KGB agent was to that level, that Prigozhin used to call Putin “Papa”. It is pertinent that prior to his restaurant job, Prigozhin spent close to a decade in jail on charges of ‘robbery’. Slowly, he started catering food to top Russian leaders, military and elites, increasing both his wealth as well as his reputation. Now, you know where the ‘Putin’s Chef’ title comes from.
In 2014, when Russia was annexing Crimea, Prigozhin proposed the idea of a private military to Putin, and we know what the response was. The aim was to carry out the state’s mission in coordination with the military, But, the added advantage of having a private military is that it can be as brutal and violent as possible, it need not follow any international protocol and it holds no accountability. So, even if international bodies or other countries point out human rights abuse, Kremlin can easily say that it has no stake in it.
This actually turned out to be the case. Wagner Group played a key role in Russian ambition, by acting as a ‘shadow instrument’ in areas where Moscow did not want to openly commit troops or resources, from Syria to Mali to Venezuela. It also played a very key role in Russia’s annexation of Crimea and was the centre of power that carried out the violent and surprising Russian comeback in the Bakhmut region. Another reason why Putin has promoted the Wagner group is to have a second string of defence (and loyal too) against any possible ‘coup’.
However, during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, various fault lines between the Wagner Group and the Russian military came up front. Prigozhin, on his telegram channel repeatedly slammed Russian military and defence minister Sergei Shoigu for not providing enough ammunition and threatened of stopping all its operations. Finally, on June 23, Prigozhin officially declared a ‘rebellion’ against Moscow and took control of several Russian military centres. This met with sharp condemnation from Putin. The next day, it was reported that Belarus (a key Russian ally) has brokered a deal with Prigozhin and he will travel there and Moscow will drop all charges.
It was followed by a number of conspiracy theories. While some celebrated it calling that Putin’s own house is not in order while he is aiming to invade Kyiv. Some claimed that this whole mutiny was carried out under Putin’s instructions only to undercut the power of those sitting at the top of his military. Many also believe that now Putin will head to the Chechen fighters (another mercenary group of Russia) to replace the Wagner Group. Some experts have even claimed that there has been no deal and Prigozhin will end up meeting the same fate as all Putin’s rivals do. After all, when the Russian President was asked what is the one thing that he can’t forgive ever. Putin’s response was…”Betrayal”.
A demonstration from Germany against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Photo: Time)
The ‘Crimea’ Angle
“Everything started with Crimea…and everything will eventually end with Crimea,” Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said while talking about how the ongoing conflict will finally end. Now, on the face of it, the ambition looks a little too far-fetched on Kyiv’s part. There are multiple reasons for that. Firstly, Crimea is a typical geographical composition with just a narrow strip of land connecting it with the other piece of land. So, it always favours the side which is defending the land, instead of the one who has launched the attack. And for any outside force to strike it, it will take a humongous number of damage and casualties, that too without a guarantee of success.
Secondly, the population in Crimea too is pro-Russian, so they won’t be welcoming Ukraine with open arms in case of an invasion. According to a census in 2011, over 60% of Crimea identified themselves as ethnic Russians while only 24% as ethnic Ukrainians. Also, the region is of utmost prominence for Moscow. It was just an isolated island when it was annexed by Russia in 2014, however, Moscow later built the crucial Crimean Bridge, which helps in the transport of logistics and essentials. However, recent Ukrainian attacks on the bridge show that maybe, Zelenskyy’s warnings were not empty threats. A destroyed Crimean bridge makes it really difficult for Moscow to do that. Anyways, I genuinely don’t think nor want Ukraine to get so obsessed with Crimea and end up inflicting severe damage upon itself.
Ukrainian man gives teary-eyed farewell to family before defending his country against invasion (Photo: Washington Post)
Where is it heading?
As of June 2023, around 9,000 civilian deaths, and over 15,000 civilian injuries have been recorded since Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. Also, the violence has internally displaced nearly six million people and forced nearly eight million to flee to neighbouring countries. Now, there is a section that still blames Zelenskyy for not surrendering and continuing with the fight. But, one thing we should remember is that it is Moscow which started the offensive. But, I am firmly of the opinion that Ukraine being a ‘sovereign’ country had all the right to join NATO or anything it wanted to. If Putin — whose expansionist and imperialist attitude is well known — had any objections he could have discussed them but instead he decided to launch a full-scale invasion.
Now, the question is, when will the war end? Well…according to my understanding — and also what many experts are pointing out — this war has reached a ‘stalemate’. Because I don’t see Putin’e ego or the US budget reaching a stop (before Trump comes back). Now, the war has already hanged on for over 500 days, and from this point, neither Putin nor Zelenskyy can back off just like that. After fighting for so many days, losing so many people and causing so much destruction, they must be having something that they can term as “victory” and show to their countrymen. So, the war practically can’t end unless and until some kind of an ‘agreement’ is reached. Now, whether this agreement will be Ukraine ceding areas in the Donbas region and setting aside the demand to join NATO or Russia suddenly saying that its aim of demilitarizing and ‘deNazifying’ Ukraine is over, there is no end to this bloody war.
“If Russia stops invading Ukraine, it will end the war…if Ukraine stops defending itself, it will be the end of Ukraine”: Joe Biden
