A building was bombarded…and then another building got bombarded…and then one more and one more. Someone was just leaving his wife and daughter as he had to stay back serving his country. Someone lost his son, father, husband, friend. So, what brought the situation down here? Just one man and his greed. So, let’s take a look into the whole story and build up. For that purpose, we need to start from the beginning and the article will get long. So, bear with me…..

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How the War Paved Up?

It has definitely not happened suddenly. Actually, it started even before Ukraine expressed the idea to join NATO. If we look at indications, Putin wrote an article in July 2021 that basically talked about the Soviet legacy, how Russia and Ukraine were one country and how he believes that they should actually come together once again. And…he really sounded serious in that article. It shows that he was having the idea of ‘Akhand Russia’ at the back of his mind for quite a time. After the whole NATO debate, Putin started giving warnings of an invasion. He had three straight conditions; firstly Ukraine never joins NATO, secondly, Ukraine and the US withdraw their troops to the pre-1997 levels and thirdly and most importantly, freeze NATO once and for all and no one can ever join it without taking Russia’s permission.

The whole of the West including Europe and the US kept on challenging Putin with “What gives him the right?” and “Who is He”?  types of statements. Ukraine too never backed off its plan as it was confident that if Russia attacks it, the whole NATO will come with as much aggression as they are showing in their statements. It all started on the 24th of February, Putin declared war on Ukraine and ordered his military to invade the country. Soon 2,00,000 soldiers along with tanks and artilleries surrounded Ukraine. With supportive ammunition in Belarus and with Russian troops having Crimea in control (since 2014), Ukraine soon found itself completely surrounded. Now, this in itself was an army larger than the whole Ukrainian military.

Pic: NATO Countries

The Root Cause called NATO

First of all…we need to know about NATO and why it is so problematic for Putin. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 2 North American countries USA and Canada and 28 European countries (including the likes of France, Germany, Britain). It was formed in 1949 after World War II for implementing the North Atlantic Treaty. So, though it seems just like any other military alliance. But, what makes the whole game all very complex is ARTICLE 5 attached to it “An Attack on one will be an Attack on All”. It basically says that an attack on any member nation will be taken as an attack on the whole of NATO, and everybody will dutifully come to protect the attacked nation.

Political SItuation of UKRAINE

Now, it is also important to have a look at the political situation of Ukraine. If we go some 5 years back, Viktor Yanukovych was the president of Ukraine…who also had a very good rapport with Putin. Till then, Putin was quite comfortable with Ukraine. But, other than the ‘rapport’ thing, Yanukovych was quite incompetent for the post. As a result amidst the situation of turmoil, the parliament removed him as President and opted for an early election. That election saw comedian turned politician Volodymyr Zelensky standing up against all odds and coming out victorious.

Pic: Volodymyr Zelensky; Comedian to President

Many didn’t have high expectations from him and feared he will become a remote control of more powerful people. But that didn’t turn out to be the case as not only did Zelensky attack corruption but also refused anyone’s dominance. This was the very moment, Putin started getting agitated and suspicious. The reason was Zelensky was not someone with the same ideology as Putin. He was more aligned towards the West and was willing to join institutions like NATO and the EU (European Union) for bringing better prospects for Ukraine. Now, this was just the boiling point.

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The History of USSR and RUSSIA

For understanding Putin’s dream, we need to dive a little into history. In 1917, amidst World War I, there was an internal revolution within Russia. This happened because the army didn’t support the regime of that time. This revolution known as the Russian Revolution overthrew the 300year rule of the Romanov Empire. The man leading this revolution was Vladimir Ulyanov…popularly known as LENIN. He visioned to develop a new Soviet which can challenge the USA, using his ideology of COMMUNISM. But, Communism has its own stringent limitations.

Pic: The USSR Map before DIsintegration

Because of that, the idea never took off, even after 50-60 years, the societal condition in the country was miserable with extremely high poverty and unemployment. This led to increased resentment among the public and ultimately the whole USSR collapsed and disintegrated into 15 newly independent nations. It left Russia with only half the population of what the USSR had. Even its economy is just moderate in size despite having ample resources. The whole dream of becoming a strong nation, stronger than the USA and Europe was collapsed but not for one man.

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PUTIN: A Small Biography of the Dictator

Practised, Subtle, Cunning player. This is PUTIN is described in the KGB record book. Getting into KGB was his goal since he was in ninth grade. HE studied law before going to spy school where he learned various languages, remained undercover in many countries and gained a lot of administrative experience. He entered the world of politics as a deputy mayor to Anatoly Sobchak who was highly impressed by him. Here, President Boris Yeltsin was under tremendous pressure to resign because of a completely messed up economy and pathetic lifestyle. So, he played the wild card and made Putin the prime minister (his deputy).

At that time, Putin’s approval rating was just 31% and hardly anybody knew him. But they were yet to witness the masterclass. CHECHNYA was a territory that was rebelling for independence from Russia. They used to carry out terrorist attacks and Russians were really fed up with them. Putin emerged as the strongman and carried out a brutal crackdown on the terrorists. This raised his popularity straightaway to 84%. Not just that, he liberalized the economy, released price and currency controls leading to Privatization. This order and discipline into the economy saw the Russian per capita income doubling and GDP rising by 94%. Russia also got the benefits of rising oil prices.

Now, according to the Russian constitution, a leader could have only served two consecutive ‘four-year’ tenures. So, what he did was that after his two tenures (2000-2004 and 2004-2008), he became the president and made his loyalist Dmitry Medvedev the president for one term (2008-2012). Now, he was again back for two consecutive terms (2012-2016 and 2016-2020). But, then Putin thought, why so much shuffling and cooling off. So, he changed the constitution altogether and now, he was eligible for running for 2 more ‘6-year’ tenures, which means he can be the President till 2036!!!

But, all this couldn’t last long. As all the economic boom was spent only on the military and not on Human Capital. Due to this, the economy again started returning to turmoil. But, this time Putin had his weapons ready. He started using ‘Nationalism’ and ‘Russian Pride’ as his political tools just like a popular leader of our country does. He also started pleasing Church and Christian patriarchs by banning pornography and homosexuality. He didn’t just stop there and went on to silence his opponents of which ALEXEI NAVELNY is just one of the many examples. He also transformed the whole media into a ‘GODI Media’ as all the major channels ORT, NVT and Rossiya 1 were owned by the government. So, with media in the pocket, challenges behind bars and constitution amended…PUTIN is the undisputed leader Russia have.

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Why does Russia object to Ukraine joining NATO?

As the Cold War era started, there were two big forces; NATO (as we just discussed) and WARSAW PACT (basically Russia along with other USSR countries). The countries in the Warsaw Pact gave Russia a formidable edge as the terrain and border design made Russia’s position very strong from the security point of view. With time, as Russia didn’t grow much while the West did, many former Warsaw pact members like Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria all held the hands of NATO by joining them. Other countries like Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia were already NATO members.

Now, Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is an arrangement comprising of Russia, Belarus and Armenia. This left Ukraine as the ‘Neutral’ link between the West and Russia’s CSTO. If it had joined CSTO, it would have made Russia’s position even stronger, but on the contrary, if it joins NATO, it brings NATO troops some 300metre from the Russian border. Russia had two huge fears; firstly, it fears that the US will try to invade Russia and its oil reserves (not much far from the Ukraine border) and secondly, it also fears that Putin’s brother in arms Belarus can come under pressure being surrounded.

Pic: Map of Crimea and the ‘Donbas’ Region

Russia’s Silent War with Ukraine

Though the war has been ‘officially’ started now, PUTIN has been doing this for quite a while now. First of all, there are two areas DONETSK and LUHANSK, which are extremist rebel groups that are demanding independence from Ukraine. Guess what, they are ideologically Pro-Russian. Now, what Putin did, he funded them and made them carry out terrorist attacks in Ukraine leading to high economic and personal losses. Not just that, he even declared the two nations independent.

Putin didn’t just stop there. Once he annexed Crimea, he got control of two-thirds of Ukraine’s discovered reserves. Russia also seized millions worth of Ukrainian equipment crippling its capacities. Not just that, the Donbas rebellion and Transnistria rebellion, both funded by Russia led to Shell and Exxon companies backing out of the deal of the Shale Gas areas. So, Ukraine was not able to realize the value of its full potential.  Now, Ukraine was in no capacity to challenge Russia, but Putin fears that won’t be the case if Ukraine joins NATO.

The Nuclear Surrender

USSR possesses humongous amounts of nuclear capacity. But, after its disintegration, they all signed a Budapest Memorandum which made Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan parties reduce their nuclear arms under Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I). Under it, Ukraine agreed to surrender all its nuclear equipment to Russia (of course for some money). In return, it was promised ‘security’ and ‘peace’ by the US and Russia. Now, you can easily see how disgraceful and crooked Russia has acted here. Putin has even threatened a nuclear attack on Ukraine. Ukraine is feeling completely betrayed as the scenario could have been very different if the nuclear would had remained with Ukraine.

Pic: Ukraine gave up the Nuclear Weapons

The ENERGY Game

Russia is an absolute superpower when it comes to oil and gas reserves, yes even bigger than Saudi Arabia. The revenue generated is around half of Russia’s budget and over 30% of the Russian GDP. As a superpower, US and EU fulfil their major energy demands from Russia only. This huge energy dependence further consolidates its position as a superpower. This whole energy sector runs on Pipelines which are mainly in Ukraine.

So, let’s bring some twists to the story. Actually, before the collapse of the USSR, the pipelines used to travel as a bridge between Russia and Ukraine and freely acted as a source of revenue. But, once the USSR collapsed and Ukraine became a separate country, Ukraine started charging tariffs for the pipelines travelling from its territory. Now, this was a compulsion for Russia as neither did that level of pipeline infrastructure existed anywhere else, plus Russia’s 80% of energy resources came from that pipeline only. Russia is also trying to stop the over-reliance by 2024 through building pipelines Yamal-Europe (via Belarus) and Nord Stream 1&2 (via Germany) and South Stream, Blue Stream and Turk Stream beneath the Black Sea.

But, there comes another twist in the tale. In 2012, Two Trillion Cubic metres worth of Natural Gas was discovered in the Economic Zone of Ukraine in the Black Sea region. Also, Shale Gas deposits were found in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Now, Putin’s conspiracy theory says that once Ukraine joins NATO, the West will help it become another oil superpower and it will be competition to Russia. Till Yanukovich was the President of Ukraine, Russia wasn’t threatened but with Zelensky, someone not aligned with Russia, Putin feels under attack. Once Putin annexed Crimea, Ukraine stopped its water supply through the Crimean bridge.

Pic: The Map of Russian Oil Pipelines

Western Propaganda

Now, despite how much we criticize Russia and Putin, let it sink that the real villain was is and will always be the WEST. I mean, all US and Europe have done over the years is fight and get into one war after the other. I mean…they had to be given a Nobel Prize, just because they stopped fighting. Here if you see, it was the US and Europe which lured Ukraine to coming into NATO. They even aggravated the situation by challenging Putin as if they are standing by Ukraine. But, once the situation got out of hand and Russia declared war, all the aggression was shelved. Despite, all the pleading from Ukraine, all the West was able to provide them with was sanctions and some goddamn helmets.

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But…why Russia has not won yet?

When the war started, most experts called it a ‘David v Goliath’ battle. Looking at Russia’s capabilities, the war shouldn’t have lasted this long. But, there are two main reasons behind it. The main reason is Ukraine’s inspirational fightback. Never for once, did they bow down and despite being lesser in numbers, they made Russians earn every single step. The other reason is, Russia doesn’t want to invade Ukraine just like that. It majorly wants to set up a pro-Russian regime, stop NATO expansion and realize its dream of ‘Akhand Russia’. Anyways, what the Ukrainians under Zelensky have showcased will proudly go down in the history. This has happened after multiple attempts of attack on Zelensky and his family, and he chose not to flee, not to surrender but to fight.

Pic: Indo-Russian Friendship

India’s stand in the Crisis

On expected lines, India’s stand has been as ‘Neutral’ as possible. India abstained not just on the UN’s probe into the matter but also in the UNSC’s over the invasion. Now, India’s stand can be criticized on the ground of ‘Being Neutral in a case of Oppression is siding with the Oppressor’. But, we need to be practical as well rather than being emotional. Russia has been the most loyal partner to India throughout history. Though we may not be that close now, Russia saved us multiple times when the whole of Europe and the US were against us, be it the Kashmir issue, the 1961 Goa’s Annexation or the 1971 war. Plus, we are highly dependent on Russia, especially for our Defence. So, going against Russia is not an option as Xi Jinping can get high any day and attack us. On the other hand, though Ukraine has voted against us mostly in the past, still we didn’t go against them either. It’s because a small country’s voting and siding is affected by its interests and dependence. So, Ukraine sided with the West and we acknowledge their decision.

Also, voting against Ukraine (in favour of Russia) meant we would have been loaded with US sanctions. So, being neutral is the best decision that could have been brought up in this case. Another reason why India couldn’t have afforded to take any risk there is the fact that many Indians, especially students were stranded there. Now, most of them have reached back home and I really hope that others also come back soon. Unfortunately, we also lost some of the lives in this. Regarding the evacuation, the government could have been a little more proactive and serious in its directives. But, still, it was able to recover well and undertake a praiseworthy Evacuation under the OPERATION GANGA. Yes, the students were ill-treated somewhere, but the fact that the vehicles with our National Flag were given straight passage goes on to prove what we have achieved over the years and why we should be proud of being an INDIAN.

Pic: Intense Image from the Russia Ukraine War

Pic: Painful Image from the Russia Ukraine War

May the War End Soon

Now, after knowing each and everything in ‘chronology’, we can make certain conclusions. Yes, I do agree that Russia’s security concerns were legitimate to quite an extent. But, nothing in this world is as legitimate as you can call out a war. All this could have been discussed in the Discussion Table peacefully like ‘civilized people. But, no Putin had to showcase his bravado. As it is already known, it is the biggest war like incident since World War II. After WWII, all the countries decided not to indulge in warlike events and resolve matters peacefully. And, if Putin gets successful after this, and even if he doesn’t, it will lead to more invasions, attacks and greedy incursions across the globe. Plus, it will shift the focus of countries from human capital and development to defence, which will lead to rising in military budgets. While protests have erupted in Russia itself against the war, surprisingly there is a significant section (outside Russia) that is praising and celebrating Putin. I mean they are nothing but the most pathetic category of people having no sympathy or emotions.

Today…the whole future of Ukraine hangs in uncertainty with bombings and attacks not stopping. Firstly, we should always remember “Only those want war who are not going to fight in it”. We saw ample examples where Russian soldiers said that they don’t want this war and a false narrative has been created regarding it back in Russia. We also saw how rival soldiers were actually sympathetic towards each other. And, we also know that war never ends as one war will fuel the seeds of the next war and so on “An Eye for an Eye will make the whole World Blind”. Even after all this stops, the pain, the hate, the sufferings…there will be no one taking responsibility. But, let me put in on record…the blood is on your hands Mr PUTIN. So, when you go to sleep tonight, in your prayers, keep a section reserved for those in Ukraine.

ONLY THE DEAD HAVE SEEN THE END OF THE WAR…!!!!!

 

References:

1. Russia-Ukraine conflict in pictures and videos, By Kriti Bhalla, Feb 28, 2022          https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/russia-ukraine-war-crisis-pictures-and-videos/articleshow/89818293.cms

2. Russia-Ukraine conflict! These images show the region amid fear of war, By Feb 15, 2022        https://www.financialexpress.com/photos/business-gallery/2434818/russia-ukraine-conflict-these-images-show-the-region-amid-fear-of-war/5/